Table 4 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) Line Percent Change at an Annual Rate 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 1 Gross Domestic Product Percentage Points at Annual Rates 2.2 2.1 4.9 1.6 3.0 2.8 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.54 0.55 2.69 1.30 1.90 2.46 3 Goods 1.14 0.11 1.08 -0.25 0.63 1.25 4 Durable Goods 1.07 -0.03 0.60 -0.13 0.40 0.58 5 Nondurable Goods 0.07 0.14 0.48 -0.12 0.23 0.67 6 Services 1.40 0.44 1.62 1.55 1.27 1.21 7 Gross Private Domestic Investments -1.69 0.90 1.47 0.64 1.47 0.07 8 Fixed Investment 0.53 0.90 0.15 1.14 0.42 0.24 9 Nonresidential 0.76 0.98 0.00 0.61 0.53 0.46 10 Structures 0.77 0.46 0.05 0.20 0.01 -0.13 11 Equipment -0.21 0.38 -0.19 0.02 0.49 0.56 12 Intellectual Property Products 0.20 0.15 0.14 0.40 0.04 0.03 13 Residential -0.22 -0.09 0.15 0.53 -0.11 -0.21 14 Change in Private Inventories -2.22 0.00 1.32 -0.49 1.05 -0.17 15 Net Exports of Goods and Services 0.58 0.04 -0.08 -0.61 -0.90 -0.56 16 Exports 0.76 -1.09 0.68 0.21 0.12 0.94 17 Goods 0.89 -1.31 0.54 -0.02 0.07 0.83 18 Services -0.13 0.22 0.14 0.23 0.05 0.11 19 Imports -0.18 1.13 -0.75 -0.82 -1.01 -1.49 20 Goods -0.22 0.78 -0.63 -0.69 -0.90 -1.24 21 Services 0.04 0.35 -0.12 -0.13 -0.12 -0.25 22 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investments 0.82 0.57 0.79 0.30 0.52 0.85 23 Federal 0.33 0.07 0.39 -0.02 0.27 0.60 24 National Defense 0.07 0.08 0.28 -0.09 0.23 0.51 25 Nondefense 0.26 -0.01 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.09 26 State and Local 0.49 0.50 0.40 0.32 0.25 0.25 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Description: • The above table decomposes percent changes in Real GDP into its components (consumption, investment, government, and net exports) and more specific subcomponents. Analysis: • The 2.8% growth in Real Gross Domestic Product from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024 was largely fueled by 2.46% increase in consumer expenditures over the same time period. • Weakness in residential investment for the second straight quarter of negative growth is something to keep an eye on. Significant declines in the contributions of residential investment over time in the past have been a leading indicator of an upcoming recession. • Net exports continue to have negative contributions to changes in Real GDP but may largely reflect the relative strength of the American economy (and American consumer) compared with the rest of the world.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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