Table 5 Lifecycle of the Expansion
Description: • Table 5 plots the unemployment rate against average weekly hours in manufacturing on a quarterly basis since the first quarter of 2020. • There are four phases: • In the initial phase of an expansion, unemployment is stable and remains high while there is a sharp rise in hours per week • In the second phase, the unemployment rate falls while hours per week tend to be relatively stable. • In the third phase, the unemployment rate is stable and hours per week decline • A contraction occurs when unemployment rises and hours per week falls Analysis: • As stated above, the simultaneous increase in unemployment and decline in average weekly hours is often a sign of an impending recession. • While the unemployment rate has increased over the last year, it has done so modestly and from historic lows. In addition, average weekly hours have shown modest increases over the last couple of quarters. • There is no indication of an impending recession at this point in time.
Central Wisconsin Report - Fall 2024
17
Made with FlippingBook Learn more on our blog