Appendix 5
Reference Document 5-2
• For example, in a very high scenario such as SSP5-8.5, the Earth is very likely to exceed a GWL of 2 (3.6 °F) between 2033 and 2054 , depending on the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions from each global climate model (Marvel et al 2023; Figure 12).
• By contrast, in a low scenario such as SSP1-2.6, the Earth is very likely not to cross GWL 2 at all (Marvel et al. 2023; Figure 12).
However, the rate of global warming varies across these scenarios, as well, with high and very high scenarios assuming the Earth warms faster (Marvel et al. 2023). Since 1850, the Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.11° Fahrenheit per decade and, as of 2023, rising about 2°F in total (Climate Change: Global Temperature | NOAA Climate.gov). However, since 1982, the rate of warming increased over 3 times as fast to about 0.36°F per decade. Currently, the planet is estimated to warm by nearly 5.4°F by the end of this century, meaning crossing a GWL 3 threshold , despite current global emission reduction pledges, according to the most recent United Nation’s Annual 2023 Emissions Gap Report (Emissions Gap Report 2023 | UNEP - UN Environment Programme). Based on these trends, it is likely that the habitats, ecosystems, and conditions of North Carolina will also change as faster rates of climate change also increase the challenge of adaptation for natural systems and wildlife Climate projections use the best available physical science to predict how the climate system will respond to changes in human activities, but not all climate projections are developed in the same manner (IPCC 2023). Climate experts across the world have produced more than 50 global climate models under multiple greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic scenarios, each with unique variations and nuances. Some have undergone transformations like downscaling to improve spatial resolutions for smaller areas in order to make management decisions at a local scale. The most recent climate projections used in the NCA5 and associated climate parameters can be viewed on the National Climate Change Viewer. This tool, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, allows for visualizations of climate change impacts, such as days of extreme heat under projects of degree warming days, under SSP-based scenarios and Global Warming Levels (Alder and Hostetler 2013). Additionally, these data are available as interactive maps and layers as part of the Fifth National Climate Assessment Interactive Atlas (National Climate Assessment Interactive Atlas) and is where we have derived our spatial climate data for this report. Information pertaining to sea-level rise, as well as easy- to-understand state-level summaries on climate change impacts, are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) via their Sea-level Rise Technical Reports and Sea-level Rise Viewer Tool, and their State Climate Summaries website (Kunkel et al. 2022; Sweet et al. 2022). In the Southeast, climate change will have pervasive impacts on natural habitats, ecological processes, and ecosystem services and regional efforts to mitigate or adapt to these impacts will be extremely important. According to NCA4 and NCA5, conditions in the Southeast may change dramatically (USGCRP 2018, 2023). Both Assessments indicate that current trends will continue such as increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, increasing wildfire risk, and rising sea levels.
The most pertinent projected changes include extreme heat, extreme precipitation events, drought, sea- level rise, and tropical cyclones, as well as decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold-season
2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
9 of 66
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator