Reference Document 5-2
Appendix 5
events. Despite the significant threat climate change poses to the landscape, understanding the tools and resources available to address climate change and develop effective strategies is difficult.
As part of the survey administered to SWAP coordinators in 2021, the majority of SEAFWA states/territories reported integrating climate change as one of the most challenging aspects of the upcoming SWAP revision. Anecdotally, some SWAP coordinators noted that it is difficult to discern what tools are available, decide which tool is the right one to use, and choose the appropriate scale and timeframe when using tools. Some reported it is also challenging to determine what climate-change associated threats to include and how to spatially represent their impacts. As such, the Southeast and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (SECASC and SCCASC) have provided data and information for this chapter to help translate the actionable implications of future climate projections.
North Carolina and climate hazards
Like the rest of the Southeast, North Carolina is predicted to experience a number of climate impacts, though the magnitude of change often varies by ecoregion, emissions scenario, and future timeframe. Generally, these impacts include hotter summers, warmer winters, more frequent extreme precipitation events, and rising sea levels (USGCRP, 2018; Hoffman, 2023).
Hotter summers, warmer winters, and more intense droughts
Generally, the number of extremely hot days (i.e., days with afternoon high temperatures of at least 95°F) are predicted to increase, although there are differences in the degree of how many hotter days are expected across the state (Table 11). Temperatures in North Carolina have risen by 1°F since the beginning of the 20 th century, which is about half of the average warming for the contiguous U.S. (Frankson et al. 2022) and under various global warming levels, summer nighttime minimum temperatures that exceed 70°F, and daytime maximum temperatures that exceed 95°F (Figure 13), become the norm in North Carolina (Alder and Hostetler, 2013; USGCRP, 2018; Hoffman, 2023). To underscore this, summer average temperatures for the state between 2005-2020 have been some of the warmest on record (Frankson et al. 2022). The years spanning 2010–2020 have also seen the largest number of very warm nights (Frankson et al. 2022). As nighttime temperatures rise, some species may also be impacted. Warmer nights can have a profound impact on animal and plant health because temperatures are generally lower at night, normally allowing the environment to cool down. Additionally, heatwaves in the U.S. have become hotter, more frequent, larger, and longer lasting in recent decades and are projected to continue, which has implications for drought in the region (Hoffman, 2023). The 5th NCA projects that the number of extremely hot days (days with maximum temperatures ≥95°F) may increase across North Carolina, with the most pronounced changes occurring in central portions of the state. Additionally, heatwaves in the U.S. have become hotter, more frequent, larger, and longer lasting in recent decades. These trends are projected to continue, which has implications for drought in the region (Hoffman, 2023). Higher temperatures throughout the year in North Carolina will increase the rate of soil moisture loss (i.e., evapotranspiration) during dry spells, which could lead to more intense droughts (Frankson et al, 2022). Any increases in temperature will cause more rapid loss of soil moisture during consecutive dry
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2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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