Reference Document 5-2
Appendix 5
increasing the intensity of naturally occurring droughts in the future (Runkel et al. 2022). In other words, more days of extreme heat can exacerbate drought conditions.
The Southeast has, in general, received more precipitation in the fall seasons but experienced drier conditions in spring and summer (Hoffman et al., 2023). Although, hydrological droughts have become less frequent in eastern regions of the country since the 19th century, higher increases in evapotranspiration (the processes by which water is transferred to the atmosphere from Earth’s surface) have generally made the Southeast more drought-prone than the Northeast (Hoffman, 2023).
Extreme precipitation events and altered flows
Other potential climate hazards may impact the state, such as extreme precipitation events, which are expected to increase in the future and often manifest as extreme weather and increased flooding (Wong et al., 2014). Climate change projections suggest that the Southeast as a region will get wetter overall, with increases to some seasonal averages and the annual average. Also, extreme precipitation amounts will increase across the region, driven mainly by more extreme events (e.g., precipitation of 3 or more inches in 24 hours) at higher levels of global warming (Hoffman, 2023). In other words, little change in total annual precipitation is projected over this century, although the timing and intensity of precipitation events will change (Hoffman et al., 2023). However, southwestern North Carolina is one of the wettest locations in the Southeast, receiving more than 90 inches of precipitation annually in a few locations. The number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events was highest during the 2015–2020 period and the wettest consecutive 5-year interval for the state was 2016-2020, averaging 56.9 inches per year (Frankson et al. 2022). Extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in the future and often manifest as extreme weather and increased flooding due to compounded affects from high tides or storm surges that inundates low-lying areas on the coast (Wong et al. 2014). In the Southeast region, extreme weather events are generally characterized by hurricanes and tropical storms that will likely increase in frequency and magnitude (USGCRP, 2018). Tropical storms and hurricanes have been responsible for some of the Southeast’s biggest and most damaging flooding events since 2018 and hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate warms (Hoffman, 2023). The likelihood of hurricanes slowing down or stalling near the Southeast coastline has increased, which exacerbates the rainfall-related flooding threats from these storm systems (Hoffman, 2023). Climate change is expected to strengthen North Atlantic hurricanes to at least Category 4 intensity and to undergo rapid intensification, as well as potentially increase the likelihood of storms making landfall (Hoffman, 2023). North Carolina’s location along the Atlantic coast makes the state vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes : a storm at hurricane intensity reaches the state about once every 3 years; however, storms at less than hurricane intensity can also have major impacts in the form of damaging winds, coastal flooding from storm surges, and extreme precipitation (Frankson et al. 2022). However, western North Carolina, the Blue Ridge and Piedmont ecoregions of the Appalachians, are also highly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events, including tropical cyclones that move inland (Martinez et al. 2024).
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2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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