Appendix 5
Reference Document 5-2
Mountainous terrain constrains where water can flow and rainfall will accumulate quickly in lower- elevation areas, worsening effects.
Additionally, hurricanes can produce widespread and damaging landslides in the mountains, like the recent hurricane Helene that dumped more than 18 inches across western North Carolina (Martinez et al., 2024). Landslides, flooding and large amounts of surface water runoff from extreme precipitation events and tropical storms have many negative impacts on wildlife including increased sediment and contaminated floodwater draining into waterways, flooding of animal nests, and erosion and more (Dolloff et al., 1994; Mirus et al., 2020). There is high spatial overlap between landslide susceptibility and biodiversity in the Appalachians provides an opportunity to achieve co-benefits in both species conservation and development if these vulnerable sites are protected and restored (Li et al., 2022). Table 13 summarizes approximate values for historical observed and future projections of extreme rainfall under different SSP scenarios for North Carolina ecoregions; while Figure 15 shows the projected future percent change in the number of days per year with extreme precipitation (e.g., days with the top 1% of rainfall) in North Carolina at GWL 1.5 (2.7°F warming) and GWL 2 (3.6°F warming) compared to the last 30 years. Estimates of when these GWL might be reached depend on the emission scenario. While all ecoregions within North Carolina will experience changes in days with extreme precipitation, the western part of the state, in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Ecoregions, is projected to experience the greatest percent change by GWL3 (Figure 15). The Southeast has the highest aquatic diversity of any temperate system; however, the ecological relationships and life histories of many of the endemic species are not yet well understood within the constraints of climate change (Ingram et al., 2013). Freshwater ecosystems (e.g., streams, rivers, lakes, and wetlands) of the Southeast are highly vulnerable to warming. Impacts on rare species of fish and mussels are of particular concern in a changing climate. The combined effects of warming and changes in precipitation will likely alter overall hydrology including increased evapotranspiration and reduced stream base flow. Currently, many species declines are associated with widespread alteration of flow regimes and are expected to be exacerbated by climate change. Impacts of climate change on riverine and wetland ecosystems are predicted to also include increased water temperatures, which dictate many species ranges and exacerbates low dissolved oxygen conditions (Ingram et al., 2013). In general, temperature regimes of freshwater ecosystems are projected to increase in parallel with shifts in air temperatures, which in turn may alter plant and animal communities including migratory birds (Princé and Zuckerberg, 2015).
Sea-level rise
Beyond the changes for temperature and precipitation, sea-level rise will also impact North Carolina. Coastal and low-lying areas are highly likely to experience a myriad of changes due to sea-level rise like flooding, erosion, and submergence (Wong et. al. 2014). Due to the magnitude of sea-level rise projected throughout the 21st century and beyond—coupled with subsidence—coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, flooding, and erosion (Wong et. al. 2014). Historically, coastal ecosystems in the region have adjusted to sea-level rise by vertical (accretion) and horizontal movement across the landscape. As sea levels continue to rise, some
2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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