Reference Document 5-2
Appendix 5
coastal ecosystems will be submerged and convert to open water, and saltwater intrusion will allow salt- tolerant coastal ecosystems to move inland at the expense of upslope and upriver ecosystems.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States , provides the most recent projections available to all U.S. coastal areas out to the year 2150 (Sweet et. al 2022). Tables 14 and 15 show the predicted extent of flooding for North Carolina at the average highest daily tides due to sea level rise. Figure 16 represents a map of areas likely to experience flooding at high tide based on each foot of sea- level rise above current levels.
Species’ response to changes in climate
As the climate, regional landscape, and weather patterns change, there is value in identifying regional strategies and conservation actions to support the SGCN and RSGCN that are most vulnerable to the impacts. A species is considered vulnerable to climate change if it is both sensitive and exposed to climate change impacts (Williams et al. 2008; Figure 17). For example, a species may be exposed to climate change because it experiences an impact like warmer stream temperatures, but if it is resilient to that change or able to disperse into new habitats, it may ultimately have low vulnerability. Conversely, a species that would be sensitive to climate change but is unlikely to experience any impacts and is therefore not exposed, may also not be Understanding if a species is sensitive and will be exposed to climate change can help managers develop strategies to support the species most likely to be impacted. Two common tools that have been used to determine climate vulnerability of species are 1) the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVIs) (Lyons et al., 2024) developed by NatureServe and 2) environmental niche modeling-based vulnerability estimates produced by the academic research community. The CCVI is a worksheet-based tool where users apply readily available information about a species’ natural history, distribution, landscape circumstances, and expert opinions to predict whether it will likely suffer a range contraction and/or population reduction due to climate change that is in the form of a vulnerability score. By design, this score is distinct from NatureServe’s national vulnerability ranking system that considers other threats. A species could score as not particularly vulnerable in terms of its Global or State rank (G-or S-rank), which is based on other factors, but could still rate as vulnerable to climate change. CCVI is based on an evaluation of the species’ direct and indirect exposure to climate change and its sensitivity to climate change. To date, several SEAFWA states (West Virginia, Byers & Norris 2011; Tennessee, Glick et al. 2015; FL, DuBois et al. 2011; and Louisiana, Holcomb et al. 2015) have used the CCVI tool to conduct assessments of their SGCN in order to inform previous SWAPs, management priorities, and research and conservation planning. Their previous CCVI assessments can be accessed from their 2015 SWAPs or from an archived online integrated dataset collated by the Armsworth lab at the University of Tennessee - Knoxville (Armsworth et al., 2025a) and can serve as references for what has been done before and to shape planning and conservation efforts. Ecological niche models (also called species distribution models) are a common approach for evaluating a species’ vulnerability to climate change by the academic research community. These models start by identifying shared climate conditions at sites where a species is known to have occurred and then predict where similar climate conditions may be found on the landscape in the future. Some models also
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2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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