Appendix 5
Reference Document 5-2
In the Southeast Region, it is likely that a changing climate will impact fire regimes (defined by factors including frequency, intensity, size, pattern, season, and severity of fire), which may have a large impact on natural habitats and systems. In order to conduct prescribed burns safely, land managers must burn during times where specific meteorological criteria (suitable weather conditions within which burning may occur based on maximum daily temperature, daily average relative humidity, and daily average wind speed) are met, along with as the social criteria of municipalities (Kupfer et al. 2021). Based on available research for historical and future prescribed burn windows, changes in climate are projected to shift the available time windows where these conditions are available (Kupfer et al. 2021). Moreover, rapid urban expansion near managed forests may reduce opportunities to use prescribed fire, which could lead to declines in native species, increases in nonnative species, increases in wildfire occurrence, and negative impacts to economic and human health. Given that the Southeast is a historically fire-adapted landscape, this has significant implications for overall ecosystem health in the Southeast. Many animal and plant SGCN and RSGCN are fire-dependent, like Red-Cockaded Woodpeckers, Indigo Snakes, pitcher plants, and Smooth Purple Coneflower. According to the 2024 Southeast Blueprint fire frequency indicator, an estimated 487,062 acres were burned from 2013-2021 in North Carolina with only slightly more than 12,400 acres burned three times or more (Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy, 2024). While across the Southeast, prescribed fire is increasing in some ecosystems like longleaf pine, this trend needs to continue to increase in order to meet the regional SECAS goal as well as to support SGCN and other state-wide objectives. Researchers working with the SE CASC conducted a study aimed at evaluating the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning opportunities in the Southeast (Kufer 2020). Understanding how prescribed burn windows, or when there are suitable weather conditions to conduct a prescribed burn, will shift is important for land managers not only for managing habitats but also for securing the resources required to conduct the burns like fire specialists, burn crews, equipment, and securing permits. The study, which included much of the Southeast, considered how many days per season met the conditions to conduct prescribed burns under two RCP scenarios: RCP 4.5 representing an intermediate scenario and RCP 8.5 representing a very high scenario. The study also provided a baseline for comparison by projecting conditions from 2010 to 2017. The seasonal trends from this time window show that North Carolina has experienced year-round opportunities to conduct prescribed burns, especially during the spring (March to May). While conditions were less favorable during the summer months (June to August), especially in the Piedmont ecoregion, there were still opportunities to conduct burns in this growing season. Conducting prescribed burns in the summer growing season can help control invasive plants and improve habitat quality. The study found under both scenarios, the percentage of suitable days for conducting prescribed burning significantly decreased by 2100, especially during summer months (Figure 21) (Kupfer et al. 2021). Although historically, almost 65% of summertime days met the burn window criteria, under the intermediate scenario 40.6% of days in the summer were suitable and under the very high scenario only 21.9% of the days in summer were suitable for conducting prescribed burns (Jewell, 2020, Kupfer et al. 2021). These results also vary across the region with much less opportunities to conduct summer burns in some states, like Louisiana and Alabama, compared with North Carolina. These changes are even
2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
19 of 66
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator