Reference Document 5-2
Appendix 5
more significant for land management given that summers may start earlier, be hotter, last longer, and have more periods of drought.
Examining future conditions from 2040-2049 under the intermediate-emissions RCP4.5 and higher- emissions RCP 8.5 scenarios suggests that there will be less suitable conditions to conduct prescribed burning during the summer growing season in North Carolina, especially in the Piedmont ecoregion. Overall North Carolina will likely continue to experience favorable conditions to conduct prescribed burns during the fall, spring, and winter seasons. In addition, other states with shared RSGCN stewardship responsibility with North Carolina—like South Carolina and Tennessee—are projected to experience much more dramatic declines in the percentage of suitable days to conduct prescribed burns. Therefore, North Carolina might be in a better position than other Southeastern states to conduct prescribed burning to maintain important fire-dependent habitats, as well as contribute to local and regional goals for prescribed burning. With shifting seasonal windows and conditions that will be conducive to conduct prescribed burns, it will also be important to consider how to best distribute resources across the State to adapt to these changing conditions along with airsheds and air quality. With a constricted window to be able to conduct prescribed burns, it is likely that more practitioners will burn in concentrated timeframes where conditions are suitable (S. Cammack, GADNR, pers. Comm). This may lead to concerns with overwhelming airsheds as they can only hold so much smoke and if transport winds or dispersion are low, smoke will remain in the airshed over longer times (S. Cammack, GADNR, pers. Comm). This may also impact the size or duration of burns through the burn permit system, especially with recent changes in the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (S. Cammack, GADNR, pers. Comm). It may be important to balance what are currently considered as marginal or poor days for burning with future opportunities while also considering information on fine particle matter (PM2.5).
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2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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