2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan

Appendix 5

Reference Document 5-2

Table 11. Approximate observed historical and the future projected number of extremely hot days per year (i.e., days with afternoon high temperatures of at least 95°F) by EPA Level III ecoregions within North Carolina. The table summarizes projected future number of days for low, moderate, and high Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios using CMIP6- LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections (Alder 2024) summarized at the ecoregion level. For each future time period, numbers in parentheses represent the percent change between the models’ future projections and the models’ historical simulations. Observed historical summaries were generated with data from Pierce et al. (2021).

Historical & Future Projections: Number of Days with Maximum Temperatures ≥ 95°F

Observed Historical: 1950-2014

2025-2049 projections (approximate percent change from historical simulation)

2050-2074 projections (approximate percent change from historical simulation)

SSP

Blue Ridge Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) Moderate (SSP3-7.0)

3 days/year (650%↑) 3 days/year (650%↑) 3 days/year (835%↑)

5 days/year (1540%↑) 7 days/year (1920%↑) 11 days/year (3070%↑) 35 days/year (405%↑) 40 days/year (475%↑) 52 days/year (635%↑) 40 days/year (330%↑) 45 days/year (375%↑) 58 days/year (515%↑)

<1 day/year

High (SSP5-8.5)

Piedmont Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) Moderate (SSP3-7.0)

25 days/year (250%↑) 25 days/year (250%↑) 27 days/year (280%↑) 29 days/year (205%↑) 29 days/year (205%↑) 32 days/year (240%↑) 19 days/year (270%↑) 19 days/year (270%↑) 22 days/year (320%↑)

8 days/year

High (SSP5-8.5)

Southeastern Plains Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5)

Moderate (SSP3-7.0)

10 days/year

High (SSP5-8.5)

Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) 6 days/year Moderate (SSP3-7.0)

29 days/year (450%↑) 32 days/year (520%↑) 44 days/year (750%↑)

High (SSP5-8.5)

2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan

63 of 66

Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator