Reference Document 5-2
Appendix 5
Table 12. Approximate observed historical and future projected number of extremely cold days per year (days with minimum temperatures that dip below freezing) for EPA Level III ecoregions within North Carolina. The table summarizes projected future number of days for low, moderate, and high Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios using CMIP6- LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections (Alder 2024) summarized at the ecoregion level. For each future time period, numbers in parentheses represent the percent change between the models’ future projections and the models’ historical simulations. Observed historical summaries were generated with data from Pierce et al. (2021)
Historical & Future Projections: Number of Extremely Cold Days (Min Temperatures ≤ 32°F)
Observed Historical: 1950-2014
2025-2049 projections (percent change from historical simulation)
2050-2074 projections (percent change from historical simulation)
SSP
Blue Ridge Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
97 days/year (17%↓) 97 days/year (17%↓) 95 days/year (19%↓) 59 days/year (25%↓) 59 days/year (25%↓) 57 days/year (28%↓) 46 days/year (29%↓) 46 days/year (29%↓) 44 days/year (32%↓) 39 days/year (30%↓) 39 days/year (30%↓) 37 days/year (34%↓)
89 days/year (24%↓) 87 days/year (24%↓) 82 days/year (31%↓) 52 days/year (35%↓) 50 days/year (35%↓) 45 days/year (43%↓) 39 days/year (39%↓) 39 days/year (39%↓) 33 days/year (49%↓) 33 days/year (40%↓) 33 days/year (40%↓) 27 days/year (51%↓)
117 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
Piedmont Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
78 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
Southeastern Plains Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5)
Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
64 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
Middle Atlantic Plain Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5)
Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
54 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
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2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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