Appendix 5
Reference Document 5-2
Table 13. Approximate observed historical and future projected chance in the number of days per year with extreme precipitation events (in the top 1% of historical rainfall events) for EPA Level III ecoregions within North Carolina. The table summarizes the projected future percent change in the number of days for low, moderate, and high Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios using CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections (Alder 2024) summarized at the ecoregion level. For each future time period, numbers represent the percent change between the models’ future projections and the models’ historical simulations. Observed historical summaries were generated with data from Pierce et al. (2021).
Historical & Future Projections: Number of Days with Extreme Rainfall (Days with Rainfall > 99 th percentile)
Observed Historical: 1950-2014
2025-2049 projections (percent change from historical simulation)
2050-2074 projections (percent change from historical simulation)
SSP
Blue Ridge Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
31% increase 32% increase 34% increase 30% increase 30% increase 35% increase 20% increase 20% increase 24% increase 25% increase 25% increase 25% increase
43% increase 43% increase 54% increase 43% increase 45% increase 55% increase 33% increase 38% increase 46% increase 32% increase 34% increase 45% increase
3 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
Piedmont Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5) Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
3 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
Southeastern Plains Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5)
Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
4 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
Middle Atlantic Plain Ecoregion Low (SSP2-4.5)
Moderate (SSP3-7.0)
4 days/year
High (SSP5-8.5)
2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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