Chapter 2 The Need for Conservation
use in the Southeast is for thermoelectric power generation. According to the Southeast Aquatic Resources Partnership (SARP), southeastern rivers contain the largest number of at-risk aquatic species than any other region of the country (SARP 2025) . Projected growth for North Carolina will mean increasing demands for freshwater supplies that will create additional stresses to aquatic resources. 2.4 Uncertainty and Future Conditions Urban growth probability (as percent change) from 2010 to 2050 was projected by means of the Slope, Land use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation and Hillshade (SLEUTH) model, which uses cellular automata, terrain mapping, and land cover change modeling to predict urban growth (Jantz et al. 2009; NCGIA 2011 ). The SLEUTH model incorporates five parameters (Dispersion, Breed, Spread, Slope, and Road Gravity) into the growth rules that project future urbanization. The model simulates not only the outward growth of existing urban areas but also growth along transportation corridors and new centers of urbanization. Similar results were found in research conducted by the Spatial Analysis for Conservation and Sustainability SILVIS Lab, a cooperative effort led by the University of Wisconsin Forest and Wildlife Ecology Department and supported by numerous federal and state agencies and private conservation organizations. The rapid development around the edges of metropolitan areas and expansion into adjacent wild lands and in rural areas is depicted in wildlife–urban interface (WUI) maps. The WUI is the area where houses are in or near wildland vegetation and is the area where wildfires pose the greatest risk to people due to the proximity of flammable vegetation (Radeloff etal 2018) . Results of a national assessment indicate one in three houses and one in ten hectares are now a part of the WUI and subject to future wildfire (and likely prescribed fire) impacts. Figure 2 .4 - 1 (at the end of this chapter) demonstrates four growth rules (Spontaneous Growth, New Spreading Centers, Edge Growth, and Road-Influenced Growth) to model the predicted rate and pattern of urbanization. 2.5 Conclusion A myriad of factors affect the abundance and distribution of species and habitats, and many (if not most) are related to human influences. The fact that the management and implementation of conservation measures often fall under the jurisdiction of multiple agencies and organizations presents an obstacle to effective conservation. It also offers opportunities for partnerships as well as the sharing of information and resources. Natural resource agencies must work more closely with private landowners and nongovernmental organizations to identify common conservation goals and to work toward cooperative achievement of those goals.
2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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