Chapter 5 Threats
5.12.4 Precipitation Changes – Anticipated Impacts Climate change is expected to directly impact water resources through changes to the amount, form (fog, rain, snow, ice), and timing of precipitation (Marion et al. 2014) . These changes will influence the quantity of baseflow and stormflow and the frequency of groundwater recharge and flooding (Marion et al. 2014; Karl et al. 2009) . Changes in precipitation amount or storm intensity can affect soil erosion potential by changing the runoff amount, the kinetic energy of rainfall, or the vegetation cover that resists erosion (Marion et al. 2014) . Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show changes in precipitation will strongly influence future variability in wet and dry summer patterns over the southeastern United States (Li et al. 2011) . The science of predicting precipitation changes for North Carolina is still young and no clear trends are evident (NCSCO n.d.; Wooten et al. 2014 ). Recent changes in precipitation in some parts of the state may be related to decadal oscillation (Sayemuzzamana and Jha 2014) . Some climate change models indicate that total amounts of precipitation may not change much, but the intensity and duration of events, both storms and droughts, will increase. This could mean that extreme or infrequent conditions may be more influential abiotic factors than these habitats and wildlife communities are accustomed to. There are more than 100 years of weather and climate observation records from several locations in the Southeast, but there are typically less than 5 years of observation records of ecosystems (Wootten et al. 2014) . There is much uncertainty in understanding the relationship between climate change and ecological response because of the lack of overlapping data sets. With projected decreases in water availability, future population growth will increase stress over water supplies across much of the South by 2060, particularly in developing watersheds (Marion et al. 2014) . Projections of water supply demand in the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area estimate a 14% decrease in water supply from the Upper Neuse River watershed in conjunction with an estimated 21% increase in water demand (Marion et al. 2014) .
The amount and timing of precipitation will affect annual amphibian reproduction because most species lay eggs in water, often seasonal and ephemeral wetland systems (Saenz et al. 2013).
Increased drought conditions and warming temperatures will contribute to the potential for increased wildfires in the Atlantic coast in summer and early autumn (Vose et al. 2014) . Dynamic vegetation models indicate there will be an increase in the fuel loading in eastern areas of the South (Vose et al. 2014) . Long-term drought may result in stress to vegetation. Projected dryness is expected to influence fire season by increasing duration as much as five months longer in the Appalachian Mountains (Vose et al. 2014) . Where development and population growth occur, there will be a greater potential threat to life and property from wildfires. The growing presence of people will also increase the risk of wildfire ignitions from human-ignited wildfires (Vose et al. 2014) . Climate change could alter fuel loading by changing plant
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2025 NC Wildlife Action Plan
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