New Listings, active listings, price reductions, sales volume, home prices, appreciation interest rates, financial markets, inflation, population migration, and other factors and indicators. April 2023
Selected Market & Economic Indicators for the National Real Estate Market
New listings, active listings, price reductions, listings pending sale, sales volumes, home prices, appreciation, interest rates, financial markets, inflation, population migration, and other factors and indicators
Published April 3, 2023
Market dynamics and values vary widely across different U.S. markets, so a national report is necessarily a very broad generalization. This report contains good-faith illustrations of data provided by a wide variety of sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Sources sometimes use different methodologies for calculating statistics. Data published at different times and intervals depending on source. Some data copyrighted, used by permission. Some of these indicators are highly volatile, and can change significantly even over the short term. All numbers should be considered approximate, and subject to independent verification by interested parties.
Buyer demand and market activity continued to rebound in early 2023 from the late 2022 low point, but the number of new listings coming on market remains very low, a situation with wide ramifications for supply and demand dynamics, and for home prices. Many important economic factors at play – such as interest rates, inflation, financial markets, the stability of the banking industry, federal debt limit negotiations, and so on – continue to be uncertain and/or volatile. This report is divided into two parts: The first looks at home prices, and supply and demand conditions and trends in the overall national market. The second part reviews selected macroeconomic factors and indicators that often impact real estate. A national report is necessarily a huge generalization of broad trends across an enormous range of regional submarkets, whose dynamics often vary. How the data in this report applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. As of the date of this report – early April – depending on the source of data, some data points for March 2023 and Q1 2023 may not be available for several weeks or longer, and will be covered in future updates.
The spring selling season is typically the most active of the year – though this too can vary between submarkets – and much more data will soon be available.
Median LIST Price by Month* National Market Dynamics since Mid-2016
June 2022
Median list or asking price is not as definitive a measurement asmedian sales price – homes can sell at, above or below list price, and price reductions also occur – but it is an indicator of seller psychology and expectations. The regular ups and downs mostly reflect seasonal pricing trends within the year, typically climbing through spring/mid-summer and hitting annual low points in mid-winter. Longer-term trends are more important than short-term fluctuations.
$450,000
$400,000
May-July 2021
Aug.-Oct. 2020
$350,000
May-July 2019
May-July 2018
|
The Pandemic Boom
|
May-July 2017
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
National Median House Sales Price Long-Term Trend by Quarter since 1970*
Q4 2022
The median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as market seasonality. Quarterly fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are more important than short-term changes. Quarterly prices will typically change more gradually than monthly prices. House (single family home) sales prices are typically higher than “home” sales prices, which also include other property types such as condos and co-ops.
$450,000
$400,000
2018
$350,000
$300,000
Pandemic hits ▲
2007
$250,000
$200,000
Foreclosure crisis
$150,000
1990
$100,000
Long-term quarterly data from U.S Census & the Department of Housing & Urban Development
$50,000
1970
$0
*Sources: U.S. Census & Department of Housing and Urban Development, per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS. Not seasonally adjusted. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers should be considered approximate.
U.S. Median Existing-Home Sales Price National Market Dynamics by Month since September 2021*
Annual Median Sales Prices • 2019: $271,900 • 2020: $296,700 • 2021: $350,700 • 2022: $386,400
The median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly data from the National Association of Realtors: Sales of existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. Excludes new-home sales.
$420,000
$410,000
$400,000
$390,000
$380,000
$370,000
Typically, median home sales price appreciation is measured on a year-over-year basis, to adjust for the effects of market seasonality.
$360,000
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
$350,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. Existing Home Sales, not seasonally adjusted, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Median House Sales Prices Selected Metro Area Markets, Q4 2022*
“Metro Areas” typically cover much larger regions – often multiple counties – than the cities they are named for, with wide variations in home prices between submarkets.
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Bridgeport- Stamford-Norwalk $ 621,100 Portland-Vancouver (OR-WA) $ 567,500
San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara
$ 1,577,500
Madison, WI
$ 380,000
Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington
San Francisco- Oakland-Hayward $ 1,230,000 Manhattan (NY County, all homes) $ 1,215,000
$ 375,000
Reno, NV
$ 562,100
Minneapolis-St. Paul $ 365,600
Miami-W. Palm Beach-Ft Lauderdale $ 550,000
Atlanta-Marietta $ 353,300 Houston-Sugar Land- Woodlands $ 337,900 Albuquerque, NM $ 336,500 Milwaukee- Waukesha $ 335,000 Chicago-Naperville (multi-state metro) $ 323,200
Honolulu
$ 1,090,000
Salt Lake City
$ 524,800
San Diego-Carlsbad $ 857,000 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale $ 829,100
Austin-Round Rock $ 478,900
Boise-Nampa Phoenix-Mesa- Scottsdale
$ 457,800
Naples-Immokalee $ 802,500
$ 450,400
Boulder, CO
$ 759,500
Las Vegas-Paradise- Henderson
Seattle-Tacoma- Bellevue Boston-Cambridge- Newton
Columbus, OH New Orleans- Metairie
$ 286,700
$ 441,300
$ 708,900
$ 275,900
Asheville, NC
$ 420,000
$ 657,900
Denver-Aurora- Lakewood
Tampa-Clearwater- St. Petersburg
Mobile, AL
$ 207,500
$ 640,000
$ 399,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. Single family dwellings. Manhattan market price includes condos and co-ops. May contain errors and subject to revision.
Though there are significant variances in the degree of change, the broad trends up and down in home prices are typically similar across metro areas.
Home Price Appreciation Trends since 2000 Per the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index*
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller uses a proprietary algorithm to calculate appreciation based on a January 2000 value of 100: A reading of 400 signifies 300% home price appreciation since Jan. 2000.
2022 market peak ▼
U.S. & Selected Metro Areas
Miami San Diego Seattle San Francisco Phoenix United States New York
400
350
Metro areas usually cover much larger regions than the cities they are named for.
300
2006-07
250
200
Foreclosure crisis
Subprime bubble
Pandemic hits ▲
150
Updated through January 2023, as published on 3/28/23
▲ Market recovery begins
100
*Seasonally adjusted, house price appreciation calculated by the S&P CoreLogic Case- Shiller Index. Based on a January 2000 value of 100. Published with a 2-month lag, reflecting a 3-month moving average: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index- family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-metro-area/#indices
Existing Home Sales by Month National Market Dynamics since September 2021*
Annual Sales Volumes • 2019: 5,340,000 • 2020: 5,640,000 • 2021: 6,120,000 • 2022: 5,030,000
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
546,000
550,000
526,000
525,000
513,000
499,000
500,000
503,000
474,000
463,000
456,000
450,000
428,000
454,000
400,000
371,000
352,000
350,000
327,000
352,000
325,000
300,000
The number of monthly sales saw an enormous decline in the second half of 2022, but began to rebound in early 2023. Sales volumes are typically affected by seasonal trends in supply and demand, as well as by changes in economic/market conditions.
271,000
250,000
231,000
200,000
* Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. Existing Home Sales, not seasonally adjusted from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495N. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
New Listings Coming on Market by Month* National Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison
547,358
550,000
527,920
521,864
Year-over-Year Comparisons through March 2023
536,712
494,998
493,830
500,000
511,572
458,810
497,844
457,096
474,176
437,270
450,000
432,532
437,270
422,086
387,170
400,000
377,450
371,304
398,736
362,932
One Year Earlier
371,304
350,000
364,272
326,660
349,284
Most Recent Months
326,660
300,000
312,196
Year over year, the monthly number of new listings has been running significantly lower since mid-2022. New listing activity typically ebbs and flows according to seasonal trends, as well being affected by general market/economic conditions.
300,614
288,436
292,736
250,000
220,792
200,000
January
March
May
July
September
November
January
March
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
New Listings Coming on Market: Broad Longer-Term Trend National Market Dynamics since 2017, 12-Month Rolling Average
The 12-month-rolling average is a very broad view of trends. Each data point reflects the monthly average of the previous 12 months of new listings. This generally deletes the effects of seasonality, but will often lag short-term changes.
470,000
460,000
450,000
440,000
430,000
420,000
Pandemic hits ▲
Interest rates soar ▲▲
410,000
400,000
On a 12-month rolling basis, the average monthly number of new listings has dropped dramatically from recent years. This has significant ramifications for supply and demand, and price dynamics.
390,000
380,000
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Active Listings on Market by Month* National Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison
Year-over-Year Comparisons through March 2023
800,000
Most Recent Months
748,344 750,653
750,000
729,103 724,038
One Year Earlier
688,772
679,650
700,000
This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings on the market can be expected on any given day of the specified month.
650,000
615,805
600,000
577,972
574,473 570,909
570,566
562,565
562,248
542,884
550,000
529,756
509,138
488,587
476,496
500,000
462,525
442,930
437,980
444,085 432,482
450,000
On a year-over-year basis, the monthly number of active listings has been running significantly higher since mid-2022.
400,000
377,515
375,226
375,226
351,846
351,846
344,462
344,462
350,000
300,000
January
March
May
July
September
November
January
March
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Active Listings on Market National Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2016
Longer-Term Perspective on Monthly Inventory Trends
1,400,000
On a longer-term basis, the number of active listings, though well up from 2021-2022 on a year-over- year basis, is running significantly lower than historical norms.
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Pandemic hits
600,000
The number of active listings on market on a given day is affected by 1) how many new listings come on market, 2) how quickly buyers purchase them, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. The number typically ebbs and flows by season. This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month.
400,000
|
The Pandemic Boom
|
200,000
-
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Listings Pending-Sale by Month* National Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison
Year-over-Year Comparisons through March 2023
700,000
A snapshot measure of how many pending listings (listings under contract) can be expected on any given day of the specified month.
663,453
659,158
639,166
650,000
633,316
623,842
615,421
594,908
600,000
578,661
575,733
565,274 559,294
540,343
547,478
550,000
524,911
524,911
509,648
506,297
493,215
493,215
491,261
500,000
473,127
468,475
One Year Earlier
445,895
445,895
450,000
415,816
Most Recent Months
396,394
400,000
On a year-over-year basis, pending-sale activity has been running much lower, but began rebounding in 2023 after 8 months of declines.
371,324
369,954
350,000
321,415
302,572
300,000
January
March
May
July
September
November
January
March
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Pending Listings by Month* National Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2016
Longer-Term Perspective on Monthly Market Activity
600,000
500,000
400,000
|
The Pandemic Boom
|
300,000
200,000
This is a snapshot measure of how many pending listings (listings under contract) can be expected on any given day of the specified month. It is affected by demand as well as the supply of listings available to buy. The regular ups and downs generally reflect the effects of market seasonality on supply and demand.
100,000
-
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) National Market Dynamics since January 2022*
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
Months Supply of Inventory measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings at current rates of sales activity. The lower the reading, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale.
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
The MSI reading for March 2023 has not yet been released.
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
1.5
* Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. Data for existing homes: houses, condos and co-ops. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Pending-Sale Ratio by Month* National Market Dynamics since 2016
After falling for 8 months from its peak in spring 2022, the pending-sale ratio began climbing again in early 2023.
150%
Longer-Term Perspective on Demand vs. Supply
125%
This chart illustrates the ratio of the pending listing count to the active listing count during the specified month. It is a broad, general measurement of demand vs. supply: Higher percentages reflect stronger buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings available to purchase. Besides general market dynamics, this metric also typically ebbs and flows to seasonal market trends.*
100%
75%
|
The Pandemic Boom
|
50%
25%
Pandemic hits
0%
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. This statistic is specific to Realtor.com Research and does not constitute “absorption rate. ” All numbers approximate.
Price Reductions on Active Listings National Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. Year over year, the U.S. number of price reductions is currently running substantially higher than in 2021-2022, but not as compared to longer-term trends.
July-Oct. 2018
500,000
450,000
June 2019
400,000
July-Oct. 2022
350,000
300,000
June 2020
250,000
July-Oct. 2021
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Local economic conditions, household wealth, employment, housing affordability & cost of living, venture capital & foreign investment, pro/anti-business sentiment Factors in Real Estate Markets Many of these factors’ effects can swing both positive and negative; sometimes effects are counter-intuitive (e.g. a pandemic causing a fierce housing boom). Economic, political, social and ecological dynamics constantly change and interact in difficult-to-predict ways. Market- changing developments can percolate gradually, or arise quickly and unexpectedly. The impact of specific factors can vary by market segment.
Interest rates
Stock markets
Inflation
Consumer confidence
Debt levels: personal, corporate & government
Massive, governmental economic interventions: post 9/11/2001, post 9/2008, post 3/2020
Natural disasters: COVID, earthquakes, fires, drought, floods, hurricanes
Domestic & foreign migration; federal immigration policy; demographic changes
Tax law e.g. real estate tax benefits & credits, 2017 SALT-deduction limitation
Rental market dynamics
State income tax disparities
International economic/political events, e.g. large oil price swings, military conflict (invasion of Ukraine), economic conflict (China, U.S.), foreign economic crises
Local, state & national politics; partisan politics
Social & quality of life issues: Crime, homelessness, schools, commute, cultural & outdoor options
Financial industry manipulation, fraud, engineering, recklessness, e.g. junk bonds, S&L collapse, predatory lending, abandonment of risk mgmt. & underwriting standards, CDOs & rating-agency deceit, insider trading, over-leveraged investing; irrational exuberance
A Review of Selected Economic Factors Impacting Real Estate Markets
Long-Term Trends in Stock Markets
Population movements occurred from counties in orange to counties in blue.
Map published by U.S. Census 3/30/23
U.S. Census 2022 Percentage Population Change Estimates by County Small percentage declines in highly populated, urban metro-area counties can lead to large percentage gains in less populated suburban and rural counties. Population movements occurred from counties in orange to counties in green.
Map published by U.S. Census 3/30/23
Consumer confidence remains low by historical standards, but has generally been on an upward path in recent months.
National Unemployment Rate January 2000 – 2023 YTD, Percentages by Month*
14
The national unemployment rate remains close to historic lows.
12
2009
10
8
6
2000
4
Pandemic hits
2
Updated through February 2023
0
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE. Data deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Data from the National Association of Realtors® under copyright. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Compass is a real estate broker licensed within each of the states in which it practices. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon. Last period data should be considered estimated and may change with late-reported activity. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics differently, and use different methodologies: Most meaningful are the trends they illustrate. This report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate, and subject to revision.
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