TECHNICAL
Figure 2: Total Number of 5G Satellite Connections (m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2024-2030
Figure 3: Average Revenue per 5G Connection Accessing Satellite Services in 2030 ($), Split by 20 Select Countries
with SNOs (Satellite Network Operators). With this, operators will need to charge subscribers to access satellite services on top of their terrestrial services in order to ensure a return on investment. Greater Usage of Open APIs in Telecoms, Driven by Rising SMS Pricing & Fraud Juniper Research notes that the price of SMS has increased between 50% and 500% across various SMS networks over the last 12 months and as a result, the demand for A2P SMS has begun to plateau. At the same time, open APIs are increasingly gaining traction in the space to enhance connectivity, communications and develop new services and applications.
Juniper Research believes that whilst 5G satellite services will be integrated into terrestrial networks from an orchestration standpoint, it is in the best interests of operators to ensure that satellite access is monetised separately to existing subscriptions based on terrestrial networks, such as mobile broadband and IoT. With this, monetisation is key for operators to secure a return on investment for the launch of satellite services. Whilst the integration of satellite services is essential for orchestration and a seamless hand-off of connectivity between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks, it is imperative that operators can differentiate the services for IoT and broadband use cases. A failure to do so will result in diminished revenue, which will lengthen the time operators can secure return on investment into partnerships
Juniper Research anticipates that this increase in satellite launches will cause a surge in the development of compatible services including 5G IoT, 5G mobile broadband and 5G mobile subscriptions in 2024. Specifically, leveraging satellite- based 5G services will provide a plethora of benefits including the ability to deliver high-speed Internet connections in underserved areas, as service carriers consider whether to make 5G more economical in less affluent nations. Additionally, it will also provide an ability to support the drive in demand for higher- yielding service packages to facilitate the increased use of data-centric use cases in IoT markets. However, Juniper Research anticipates that the pricing of satellite services will be of key focus next year. The pricing of satellite services must reflect the pricing of terrestrial services already in use.
Whilst Juniper Research anticipates that 5G satellite services will not necessarily be a commercial priority for operators in 2024, developing this ecosystem in preparation for commercial service will be. By ensuring open network standards early, this will enable cellular, fixed and satellite networks to work in tandem to provide seamless global coverage moving forward.
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Volume 46 No.1 March 2024
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