Declining Demand (CONT’D FROM PAGE 12)
Causes Behind The Slump In Corrugated Demand Several forces are combining to reduce cardboard usage across the US: • Post-pandemic adjustment: Online shopping surged during lockdowns, sending box demand to record highs. With consumers now spending less on deliv- ered goods and more on services, packaging orders are normalising at lower levels. • Trade pressures and costs: Tariffs and shifting trade policies have made raw materials like wood pulp more expensive. Box producers are struggling to keep mar- gins, prompting some to scale back operations. • Efficiency in packaging: Retailers and e-commerce giants are experimenting with lighter mailers, small- er boxes and reusable packaging. These innovations save costs but reduce the need for traditional corru- gated cartons. • Cooling industries: Construction, automotive and du- rable goods sectors—heavy users of packaging—are slowing. Weaker investment in these industries trick- les down to fewer shipping orders. Why It Matters For The Wider Economy Falling demand for packaging does not stop at box manufacturers; it ripples across multiple industries and signals risks for national growth: • Early sign of recession: Because nearly every product requires packaging at some point, fewer boxes often precede a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. • Impact on jobs: Paper mills, packaging plants and tim- ber suppliers are feeling the pinch. Several pulp mills in North America have already closed or reduced ca- pacity, putting thousands of jobs at risk. • Supply chain stress: Lower demand may keep box prices from soaring, but rising input costs—energy, pulp and transport—still squeeze producers. This im- balance can lead to plant closures and supply short- ages if conditions worsen. • Corporate caution: Lower packaging orders mean firms are holding off on production, delaying expan- sions, or cutting investment. That can ripple through financial markets and dent economic confidence. What Lies Ahead For The US Economy The trajectory of cardboard packaging demand will be closely watched in the months ahead. If consum- er spending continues to weaken under the pressure of high borrowing costs and inflation, corrugated ship- ments may keep sliding. Conversely, a rebound in retail or e-commerce could stabilise demand. For now, the cardboard-box slump serves as a quiet but telling warning sign. It reminds policymakers, busi- nesses and consumers that the health of something as simple as packaging can reveal much about the broader direction of the US economy. Visit www.nam.org for more information.
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October 13, 2025
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