supply is constrained as sales rise again
The pandemic is making it challenging to separate fact from fiction in King County’s housing market. To us, it seems clear that supply remains constrained against the backdrop of another robust month for sales—for now.
that King County housing supply remains a relative scarce commodity. The evidence is less conflicting on the sales front, with buyers remaining active through the County. For example, the 3,699 MLS sales that were tallied in King County in April represented a fourth consecutive month of climbing sales counts, with the March-to-April increase of 18% exceeding the more typical seasonal increase of 8%. Additionally, last month’s sales were 77% higher than one year ago (at the beginning of the pandemic), and 36% above the long-run April average. The next few months will be fascinating to monitor. Will demand slow down as the vaccine is more widely deployed—though it’s noteworthy that 38% of Washington State’s population is fully vaccinated, compared to 35% nationally—and instead of going to open houses more of us are opening our houses to family and friends? Will the economy continue to recover and, if so, how will listings respond? Rest assured we will be following the data closely.
Just as smooth seas do not a skilled sailor make, the same can mostly be said for stable markets’ ability to create savvy analysts. This is not to say that one cannot generate robust, thoughtful, and meaningful insights during non-turbulent times—indeed, it is probably the safest and most reasonable time to produce forecasts, for example— but it is when markets are undergoing unprecedented or unexpected changes that separating the noise from the signal is often most challenging. Take our current housing market here in King County. Depending on who you ask, the market is either beginning to moderate itself or it’s as tight as ever. Curiously, each of these perspectives can be founded on the same set of data points—particularly on the supply side of the market. On the one hand, it’s reasonable to wonder if the trend in listings has already reached
an inflection point: resale inventory was certainly higher in April than in March, by almost 350 listings (13%). In this case, we can chalk one up for the “market moderators”. There are a few counterpoints to this. First, though the number of homes available for sale in King County expanded between March and April, the direction of change is fairly typical: over the past ten years, the average March-to-April change in listings was a 6% increase. Second, current inventory is 35% below last April’s level, and a whopping 56% below the past-decade April average number of listings (6,713). Finally, April’s inventory was the 8th-lowest in any month in the past 15 years (with each of January, February, and March of 2021 also having made this particular Top 8 list). On balance, then, it seems clear to us
Copyright © 2021 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of May 11, 2021. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online