A NO-GROWTHWORLD IS INEVITABLE
The notion of no growth is like stripes with plaid, petting the cat against the grain, ketchup with filet mignon… It’s contrary to our most basic instincts, That’s not to say that change won’t happen, or that innovation will end: If anything, the pace of evolution will accelerate, as the scramble to find and create new markets and gain share in a flat market intensifies. Parts of the economy will grow, while others will shrink... But though the ingredients of the global economic goulash may change, there won’t be any more of it. make no mistake: We’re moving toward a no-growth world, where stock markets return 0% in a good year... economies stay the same size... companies struggle just to keep what they have... and everyone has a frame of mind that isn’t about growing and bigger and expanding. Instead, it will be focused on keeping things like they are – at best. To a global economy that genuflects before the gods of growth, this sounds like atheism. And the adjustment – in terms of politics, perspective, people, and paychecks – won’t be easy. But it’s not all bad... And there are three big silver linings that we – or, more likely, our kids and grandkids – will come to appreciate, as growth goes the way of tipping 10%, communism, and the Oh Henry! candy bar. First, though... growth – and why it’s going away. a violation of our very (economic) humanity.
SISYPHUS AND THE GROWTH OBSESSION
“Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning,” Benjamin Franklin said. It’s a sentiment that the global economy – and America’s in particular – has taken to heart. It’s never good enough to make as many cars... write as many lines of code... harvest as many apples... or sell as many talking refrigerators, as last year, quarter, or month. As Mr. Franklin implies, without growth, there is no progress... And without progress, there’s stagnation. And there’s certainly no improvement, achievement, or success. Last December – in the midst of a global pandemic – retail sales in the U.S. declined by 0.7% compared to the previous month. So for every 1,000 Vitamix 5200 Blenders that were sold in the earlier period, 993 were sold in December... If there were 1,000 Lego Millennium Falcon kits sold in November, 993 were bought in December. In many realms of life, that kind of change isn’t even perceptible... It’s a rounding error. If I take 0.7% fewer steps today than yesterday, I wouldn’t notice. Speak 0.7% fewer words? Wouldn’t notice. But in the weird universe of markets, it’s a catastrophe. That decline in retail sales last December, according to one economist quoted in the Wall Street Journal on January 15, was “an absolute disaster.”
Growth means to do, sell, produce, manufacture, cobble together, write –
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July 2021
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