RENNIE OUTLOOK 2020
housing: momentum carrying into 2020
RESALES
Following a sluggish start to 2019, Metro Vancouver’s resale market gained some momentum through the second half of the year. Overall, the 40,043 MLS sales in 2019 were 1.5% above those in 2018, with single-family up 5% and multi- family down 1%. After sales having been 23% lower on a year-over-year basis during the first six months of 2019, total year-over-year sales in the second half of 2019 were 37% above those in the same period of 2018. This was not unexpected given the region’s strong underlying demographic and economic fundamentals.
OUR 2020 OUTLOOK With recent below-average per capita sales ratios reflecting pent-up housing demand, we expect sales in 2020 to exceed those from 2019 by up to 15% as these gaps in per capita sales ratios close. Year-end resale totals are therefore expected to be upwards of 46,000, comprising 17,000 single-family sales (19% below the past-decade average) and 29,000 multi-family sales (11% above average).
RESALES
PRE-SALES
The 7,722 pre-sales across Metro Vancouver in 2019 were half the number achieved in 2018, and were 62% lower than 2016 (when there was an all-time high of 20,280 pre-sales across the region). There were 3,558 concrete and 4,164 woodframe/townhome sales in 2019. While the pre-sale segment of our housing market continues to face headwinds in the aftermath of stricter mortgage regulations (which have now being loosened) and provincial/local policy interventions that conspired to erode consumer confidence, the recent buoyancy of the resale market has had trickle-down effects on pre-sale activity, with year-to-date site traffic and pre-sale counts up over last year.
OUR 2020 OUTLOOK In acknowledgement of our region’s strong economic and demographic fundamentals and the persistence of an active resale market—which is already nudging prices upwards—we expect regional pre-sale counts to exceed 11,000 in 2020. This would comprise a floor of 6,000 concrete pre-sales and 5,000 woodframe/townhome pre-sales (both still below their past-decade average).
PRE-SALES
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 6, 2020. All data from RealEstateBoardof Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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