RENNIE OUTLOOK 2020
jobs, wages, & interest rates: brighter prospects ahead
JOBS
After experiencing several months of the most robust labour market conditions in the country, Metro Vancouver’s economy is now growing at a slower pace: over the past 12 months through January 2020, the region’s job base expanded by only 0.6% (8,400 additional jobs), putting it in the bottom one-third of metro area growth in Canada. This stands in contrast to 2018, when employment grew at a 2.2% annualized rate (31,400 additional jobs).
OUR 2020 OUTLOOK The region’s job base is expected to be boosted over the coming year(s) by a continued office and residential construction boom, as well as the expansion of numerous US and Canadian companies into the region, including Amazon, Mastercard, and Shopify, to name a few.
JOBS
UNEMPLOYMENT
Despite the decidedly sluggish employment growth over the past year, Metro Vancouver’s already-low unemployment rate nudged down to 4.5% in January 2020 from a recent high of 5.0% in October. Having said this, the current unemployment has risen from the floor established in the summer of 2019, when it hit 4.1%.
OUR 2020 OUTLOOK Due to our aging population (and the headwind it is creating for labour force growth), as well an expected rebound in job growth, we see the unemployment rate remaining in the range of 4.0-5.0% for the remainder of 2020.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
JOB VACANCIES
With current labour market conditions favouring workers, employers in Metro Vancouver are facing an elevated job vacancy rate of 4.7%—the highest in Canada. This translates to 72,745 jobs that are unfilled, or the equivalent of almost nine years of regional job growth at the current rate. Approximately one-third of these vacancies are in retail trade and food and accommodation services, with an additional 9% in construction.
While a high and increasing job vacancy rate is not ideal for a smoothly functioning economy, it does indicate that employers remain positive about the region’s economic prospects.
OUR 2020 OUTLOOK Through the remainder of 2020 we expect the job vacancy rate to remain elevated, but given our expectations of increased migration we do not see the regional job vacancy rate surpassing its current ceiling.
JOB VACANCY RATE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 6, 2020. All data from RealEstateBoardof Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 7
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