CTO/05
2026
Three failures, not one If the market were going to close this gap, it would have done so already. The mobile industry has achieved something extraordinary over thirty years, connecting billions and transforming economies. In Nigeria, telecommunications grew from a rounding error in national GDP in 1999 to a sector contributing double figures today. But the industry is now reaching its commercial limit. Bharti Airtel CEO Gopal Vittal noted in 2025 that the mobile/cellular operator had made a “very brave call” in deciding to go after 40 per cent of the customers which account for almost 80 per cent of revenue . e. The remaining customers are, in market terms, unprofitable to serve. They will not be reached by waiting for the next technology cycle. [1] So, the barriers fall into three groups, and useful Commonwealth strategy has to address all three rather than reaching for infrastructure alone. The first – and most important - is demand-side failure, also called the usage gap challenge. Poverty, low digital literacy, lack of awareness, and the simple fact that connectivity ranks below clean water, food and schooling on a poor household's list of priorities. The clearest example is handset affordability. The Africa Group of Six[2] reports that 60 per cent of people living within mobile coverage, some 710 million across sub-Saharan Africa, still do not subscribe because they cannot afford a device. Coverage is not the constraint - cost and capability are. The second is supply-side failure, also called the supply gap challenge. No reliable power, poor roads, and business models that no rational investor will fund because the economics of serving sparse rural populations do not add up. The third is a coordination failure, and it is the one the Commonwealth is best placed to fix. There are too many actors working at too small a scale. Individual regulators, universal service funds, ministries, multilateral development banks (MDBs), etc. across hundreds of developing countries are each too fragmented to negotiate effectively with global equipment suppliers or to share the cost of solutions. Acting alone, none of them can move the needle.
[1] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/airtel/airtel-ceo-underscores-strategy-shift-for- turnaround/ OR https://www.mobileworldlive.com/airtel/airtel-ceo-underscores-strategy-shift- for-turnaround/ AND https://www.mobileworldlive.com/old_latest-stories/interview-bharti- airtel-group/
[2] A coalition of African mobile network operators (Airtel, Axian Telecom, Ethio Telecom, MTN, Orange, and Vodacom)
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