NAM: Job Openings Improve But Well Below 2019 Levels BY CHAD MOUTRAY
The COVID-19 outbreak has altered the manufacturing labor market dramatically. Manufacturers hired 426,000 workers in May, the most since April 2001. At the same time, total separations have declined from an all-time high of 804,000 in March, to 762,000 in April, to 284,000 in May, the lowest since November 2016. Net hiring was 142,000 in May, rebounding after net declines of 505,000 and 436,000 in March and April, respectively. There were 1,314,000 initial unemployment claims for the week ending July 4, continuing to decelerate after peaking at 6,867,000 for the week ending March 28 but remaining highly elevated. Meanwhile, 18,062,000 Ameri- cans received unemployment insurance for the week end- ing June 27, or 12.4 percent of the workforce. U.S. consumer credit outstanding fell 5.3 percent in May, with Americans pulling back sharply on spending during the COVID-19 pandemic for the third straight month. In May, revolving credit (which includes credit cards and
There were 328,000 manufacturing job openings in May, up from 315,000 in April and improving for the sec- ond straight month after dropping to 310,000 postings in
March, which was the slowest pace since October 2016, according to Chad Moutray, Chief Economist at the National Association of Manufactur- ers (NAM). For comparison purpos- es, there were 482,000 postings one year ago. In the larger economy, non-
farm business job openings rose from 4,996,000 in April, the slowest pace since December 2014, to 5,397,000 in May, increasing after two months of declines. Chad Moutray
other credit lines) plummeted 28.6 percent, reflecting the anxiousness of the consumer and the extent to which purchases—at least those done on credit—have fallen sharply. Over the past 12 months, consumer credit outstanding has risen just 0.9 per- cent. Nonrevolving credit (which includes auto and student loans) increased 3.8 per- cent year-over-year, but revolving credit dropped 7.2 percent year-over-year. Producer prices for final demand goods and services declined for the fourth time in the past five months, down 0.2 percent in June. At the same time, producer prices for final demand goods increased 0.2 percent in June, extending the 1.6 percent growth in May. Core inflation for raw material goods, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1 percent in June. There continue to be deflationary pres- sures in the economy, even with some sta- bilization, due to COVID-19 and the global recession. Over the past 12 months, pro- ducer prices for final demand goods and services have decreased 0.8 percent, the same pace as in May and remaining the lowest since December 2015. At the same time, core producer prices were flat year- over-year in June (seasonally adjusted), up from being down 0.4 percent in May. Real value-added output in the manu- facturing sector declined an annualized 4.9 percent in the first quarter, pulling back for the second straight quarter from the all-time high in the third quarter of 2019. Manufac- turing continued to account for 11 percent of real GDP in the first quarter. Chad Moutray Ph.D. is Chief Economist at NAM.
6
www.boardconvertingnews.com
July 20, 2020
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator