The General Economy
Q4 2024 Market Update
SUMMARY: US and Canadian inflation nears target levels raising hopes for Q3 prime rate cuts
Overall inflation continued to decline in Q3 2024 in both the U.S. and Canada to levels slightly above both country’s central bank 2% targets . US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada, Technomic
88% of 101 economists polled by Reuters in late August predicted the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings of 2024. In actuality, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate a half-percent to 4.75% on September 17, signaling confidence that inflation is under control and the Fed’s focus is moving toward fostering employment growth. The Fed meets again next in November and then again in December CBS Bank of Canada began lowering its prime rate in June and cut twice since then, lowering the key policy rate to 4.25% currently. Reuters Unemployment rates in the US and Canada trended up through the first half of 2024. 4.2% was the US rate in mid-September, 6.6% in Canada. WSJ Economists at Modern Distribution Management forecast U.S. wholesale distribution revenue for 2024 to increase 2.2% annually versus prior year and 2025 revenue growth to be 5.7% for the distribution sector. MDM
CANADIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
20%
10% 12% 14%
15%
10%
2% 4% 6% 8%
5%
0%
Charts by Technomic
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