MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
Production Continues Despite Low Market Prices
remained a major concern. Gas well drilling west of Saskatchewan has tended to move farther into north western Alberta and north eastern British Columbia; this has resulted in delivery infrastructure that is constrained due to a lack of infrastructure. NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) currently has a project before the National Energy Board which is intended to relieve this constraint by adding additional gas line and compressor facilities. SaskEnergy will continue to monitor this situation and take steps, where needed, to ensure access to a reliable source of natural gas throughout the process.
Since the beginning of the shale gas production revolution approximately 10 years ago, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies continue to advance. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing is very cost effective and the related production has resulted in North American activity increasing slightly, despite the strong supply position. The relative low, flat shape of the forward price curve suggests that the market expects the excess supply to remain for the foreseeable future. However, a fundamental shift in demand may occur as new gas-fired power generation and other natural gas intensive industries have experienced growth in recent years. Changing Saskatchewan Natural Gas Supply Saskatchewan is a net importer of natural gas. Annual demand exceeds domestic production and in 2018- 19, approximately 65 per cent of gas consumed in the province was imported from Alberta. With natural gas production declining in the province, and growing demand in the enhanced oil recovery, potash and power generation sectors, the year-over-year gas supply requirement must come from outside of Saskatchewan. Constraints of Existing Infrastructure Despite the shift to horizontal drilling methods improving gas supply economics, getting gas to market has
CHANGE IN SASKATCHEWAN SUPPLY & DEMAND
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
NET IMPORTER
NET EXPORTER
NET IMPORTER
FORECAST
ALBERTA SUPPLY
Saskatchewan Supply Sask Supply Forecast Saskatchewan Load Sask Load Forecast 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
2021 2024 2018
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS
Consolidated Net Income (Loss)
MARCH 31, 2019
Excluding Effects of IFRS 15
IFRS 15 Effects
As currently reported
March 31, 2018
(millions)
Change
- $
134 $
Income before unrealized market value adjustments
$
134 $
110 $
24
13 19
Impact of fair value adjustments Revaluation of natural gas in storage
13 19
- -
46
(33)
(12)
31 22
Consolidated net income
$
166 $
- $
166 $
144 $
The overall impact of adopting IFRS 15 on income and consolidated net income was nil.
22
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