STRATEGY
SENIOR LIVING
Millions of Unsellable Homes Could Upheave the Housing Market
WHAT THIS MISMATCHED MARKET MEANS FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTORS
by Ben Rao
S
weeping demographic chang- es are underway in the U.S. as
Baby Boomers are set to leave their homes in record numbers: within the next decade, more than a quarter of currently owner-occupied homes will become available. Meanwhile, tens of millions of Millennials will be starting families and looking for homes in which to raise their children, and the newest generation (Generation Z) will be seeking out starter homes. But there are serious problems looming that threaten to upheave housing markets, and America is
not prepared to handle them. A recent study by Arthur C. Nelson, a University of Arizona professor of urban planning and real estate development, predicts that millions of homes owned by Baby Boom- ers will become unsellable due to demographic and preferential shifts among Millennials and Gen Zers over the next couple of decades. The result could be a glut of homes that could grow as high as 15 million by 2040, with Baby Boomers either unable to sell their homes or selling
tens of millions of Baby Boomers age into retirement. Between now and 2030, the number of Americans aged 65 years and older will increase to 73 million people, accounting for 30 percent of the population. Rough- ly 70 percent of them will require long-term care services after age 65, and millions will transition out of their homes and into assisted living communities or exchange their larg- er homes for smaller ones. In fact,
60 | think realty magazine :: may 2021
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