NEWS IN NUMBERS
Government will miss housebuilding target
T he government’s ambition to build one and a half million new homes in England by 2030 is set to fall short, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. Reeves said the country is expected to deliver “fewer than 1.3 million” net additions to the UK housing stock by March 2030. This figure, drawn from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast, is lower than Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge, even when accounting for new builds in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Still, the Chancellor struck an optimistic tone, calling the gap “touching distance”, and pointing to progress made on planning reform. The OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook estimates 1.3 million net housing additions from 2025-26 to 2029-30. It credits the revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) for lifting expected completions, saying reforms could contribute an extra 170,000 homes. “This is equivalent to a 0.5 per cent increase in the housing stock by 2029-30,” the OBR noted.
Key changes, such as obliging local authorities to release land to meet housing needs and strengthening the presumption in favour of sustainable development, are expected to drive this increase. However, the OBR added that most of the growth won’t be felt until 2027-28 due to planning and development lead times. The OBR sounded a note of caution, warning that its assumptions rest on overcoming serious supply-side constraints in
17% The percentage by
which building costs are forecast to rise over the next five years. Source: Building Cost Information Service (BCIS)
the construction industry. “Capacity constraints in the
housebuilding sector could prove more binding than assumed,” its report stated, highlighting concerns around labour shortages and local opposition, particularly to building on green belt land. In its alternative scenarios, the OBR suggested the UK could see between 1.2 and 1.4 million homes delivered, with corresponding variations in GDP impact. Whether the sector can meet the revised targets will depend on how well it navigates workforce shortages and planning hurdles.
15.3% Q2 2022
1.7% Q4 2024
1.7% The percentage at which
housebuilding cost inflation stood at in Q4 2024, down from a peak of 15.3% in Q2 2022. Source: BCIS Private Housing Construction Price Index (PHCPI)
35,000 The number of job vacancies in the UK’s construction industry. Source: ONS
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