North and South Korea
neared $3.9 billion. 12 It has increased over 400 times its size in 70 years, becoming the world’s 10 th largest economy. 13 According to a report by Goldman Sachs, ‘ a united Korea could overtake France, Germany and possibly Japan in 30-40 years in terms of GDP in USD terms ’ and by 2050 it would be firmly on part with most G-7 countries. 14 Therefore, if the South’s developed industry and technology combined with the abundant natural capital from the North were properly used, a united Korea could wield these qualities to overcome the economic costs and eventually surpass its current state.
Foreign Aid
Considering the immediate economic costs reunification would bring, foreign aid is inevitable. The most likely countries to support Korea include: the USA, Japan, China and Russia. However, the amount of aid provided or even potential resistance all depends on who will a unified Korea align to – Washington or Beijing. 15 The USA of course will only support a reunified Korea if it allies with Washington, fearing the increase in Chinese power. Losing South Korea would also mean a diminishing of American influence in East Asia, as their forces would have no reason to remain in the peninsula. To counter, it may provide significant funding towards the reunification and encourage other concurring nations to help. This would demonstrate its commitment towards Korea, offering itself as a more profitable ally than China. Japan likewise is worried about an increase in Chinese power. Not only would China gain further influence but it may also foster anti-Japanese sentiment by exploiting Korean nationalism, potentially leading to friction and a hindrance of trade. To counter this, Japan must be prepared to reconcile itself with the reality of its history surrounding Korea. If this happens, then the Korean-Japanese relationship can develop through initiatives such as providing aid towards a unified Korea. On the other hand, China looks to extend its influence within the Korean peninsula. It doesn’t immediately support the reunification as the North acts as a tactical barrier against the American influenced South. But if a united Korea aligns with Beijing, China would be fully incentivised to support it: there would be a stable environment for trade and investment but all at the expense of the USA. Russia stands somewhat in the middle; it will support either way but would prefer a Washington aligned Korea to limit Chinese influence in east Asia. [ Editor’s note: this was written before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.] Its main goal is to regain the lost influence, ensure security and then take advantage of the economic opportunities lying in the North (the abundance of minerals). Consequently, reunification should occur as wherever Korea aligns to, there will be a powerful country prepared to financially support it and encourage trade to counterbalance any economic stagnation.
‘One Country, One People’
One of the most obvious answers to why both Koreas should reunite is the notion that all Korean people are the same and thus should be together in one single country. Ryoo Gil-jae, a South Korean politician,
12 World Bank – South Korea, https://datacommons.org/place/country/KOR?utm_medium=explore&mprop=amount&popt=EconomicActivity&cpv =activitySource%2CGrossDomesticProduction&hl=en [consulted 31/8/21]. 13 Economy of South Korea , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_South_Korea [consulted 2/9/21]. 14 Goldman Sachs – Kwon G, A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks , https://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk- uploads/global_economics_paper_no_188_final.pdf [consulted 1/9/21]. 15 Coghlan D, Prospects From Korean Reunification, https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep11602?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents [consulted 30/8/21].
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