Special Report - The U.S. Supreme Court: Under the Radar by Caz McChrystal, J.D. Associate Professor of Business Law
CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FALL 2022 REPORT
THE U.S. SUPREME COURT Under the Radar
by Prof. Caz McChrystal
An Uncertain Year Ahead As we bid adieu to 2022, our thoughts turn to the upcoming year. We at the CBEI hope that the contents of this publication can help shed light on some of the challenges and opportunities for the uncertain year ahead. In The U.S. Economy and Inflation in 2023 , Chief Analyst Kevin Bahr describes the multiple domestic and global sources behind the stubborn increases in the inflation rate and the likely impacts of recent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on the economy in 2023. I am excited to announce the addition of new economic statistics to our Economic Indicators section of the report. These new economic measurements will provide a deeper understanding of inflationary and employment trends for the national economy. I want to thank Kyle Pulvermacher, our newest CBEI research assistant, for his creative contributions and help in co-authoring the report. Over the past two terms, the Supreme Court has heard arguments and issued rulings in a series of controversial blockbuster cases. The current term, which began in October, is no different; however, the cases which generate the biggest buzz often drown out discussion on lesser known but equally important controversies. In The U.S. Supreme Court: Under the Radar , Professor of Business Law Caz McChrystal addresses several cases currently under review or about to be argued before the Supreme Court involving states’ ability to regulate business, the due process rights of businesses, and the regulation of speech on the internet. These cases, that often fly under the radar of casual Court watchers could greatly affect the business climate in the United States and in North Central Wisconsin This issue’s Insight Spotlight column, Do More Together: Strategic Doing for Stronger Communities by student Adam Klawitter ’23 and UWSP Professor Elizabeth Martin describe the critical role “strategic doing” can play in supporting community development initiatives.
Table of Contents
T he U.S. Economy and Inflation in 2023 .................................... 1-10 Kevin M. Bahr Economic Indicators ..................................................................11-17 Scott Wallace and Kyle Pulvermacher National Economic Statistics ................................................... 11-13 Table 1: Key Economic Indicators Table 2: Changes in Price Levels Table 3: National Employment Indicators Table 4: Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Table 5: Lifecycle of the Expansion Labor Market Statistics .................................................................. 16 Table 6: Labor Market Indicators from LAUS Table 7: WI Employment by Major Industry Sector County Economic Statistics . .....................................................17-19 Table 8: Help Wanted Advertising Table 9: Unemployment Claims Table 10: County Sales Tax Distribution Housing and Construction ........................................................ 18-19 Table 11: National Affordability Index Table 12: Median Home Prices and Home Sales
Table 13: Residential Construction Table 14: Nonresidential Construction
Business Sentiment ........................................................................ 19 Table 15: Business Confidence Survey: Central Wisconsin Area Special Report ........................................................................... 20-25 The U.S. Supreme Court: Under the Radar Caz McChrystal Column: Insight Spotlight ......................................................... 26-27 Do More Together: Strategic Doing for Stronger Communities Elizabeth Martin and Adam Klawitter Notes ................................................................................................ 28 MBA Program ........................................................ Inside Back Cover
CBEI Mission
CBEI Staff
The UW-Stevens Point Center for Business and Economic Insight (CBEI) promotes regional economic and community development through the provision of business and economic knowledge to local business, governmental, and community leaders. The primary areas of focus are Portage, Marathon and Wood counties.
Scott Wallace....................................Director and Editor, CBEI Kevin Bahr...................................................Chief Analyst, CBEI Alexis Flaten..........................Senior Research Assistant, CBEI Kyle Pulvermacher........................... Research Assistant, CBEI Eva Donohoo...................................Publication Designer, CPS
The Center for Business and Economic Insight is made possible thanks to support from the UW-Stevens Point School of Business and Economics.
The UW-Stevens Point School of Business and Economics creates career-ready graduates and leaders through applied learning. We serve the businesses, economy and people of the greater Central Wisconsin region. We specialize in preparing students for success by providing professional development experiences, access to employers, and in-demand skills.
The U.S. Economy and Inflation in 2023
Kevin M. Bahr CBEI Chief Analyst; Professor of Business School of Business and Economics
Overview No economic issue was more politicized in the November elections than inflation. It was one of the most important issues to voters, and the most important economic issue. In a rare show of unity, both Democrats and Republicans agreed that inflation was a problem. However, specific short-term solutions to current inflation were more problematic for politicians to identify. While the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to reduce consumer and business spending, legislative actions that would immediately curtail inflation were difficult. There is a reason for that. Inflation is not simply a U.S. problem caused by U.S. policies; it is a global problem created by global factors. Inflation was the top global, economic problem in 2022. U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1% in June but has remained stubbornly high. In October, inflation fell to its lowest rate in 2022, but was still at 7.7%. Although inflation remains a problem, the 2022 job market has been incredibly strong. In October, there were 153.3 million Americans working, more than at any other time in the history of the United States. The unemployment rate was less than 4.0% since February, and the number of job openings was consistently at near record highs throughout the year. The job market has robustly recovered from the April 2020 COVID driven record high unemployment rate of 14.7% when only 130.5 million were employed. Economic growth cooled significantly in 2022. The 2020 economic decline caused by COVID was record breaking, as was the post-COVID economic recovery. After declining 4.6% in the first quarter of 2020, economic growth dropped a record 29.9% in the second quarter. The decrease was the worst quarterly decline on record since the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) began tracking quarterly economic growth in 1946 and was much greater than the worst quarterly decline of 8.5% during the financial crisis in 2008. The record drop in economic growth in the second quarter was followed by record growth in the third quarter, as the economy grew at an annualized rate of 35.3%, the highest quarterly growth on record. Although the economy rebounded in the second half of the year, overall economic growth in 2020 declined 2.8%, the largest decrease in annual economic growth since 1946. During the financial crisis the largest annual economic growth decline was 2.6% in 2009. The strong economic growth that returned in the second quarter of 2020 generally carried through 2021. Annual GDP growth in 2021 was 5.9%, the strongest annual growth since 1984. Economic growth was mixed in 2022, with growth returning at a 2.6% rate in the third quarter following declines of 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second quarter. Inflation – Global Factors and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine The table on the following page shows the annualized inflation rate for Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States in 2022 compared to April 2021. Note that the trends in price increases are similar across most countries, with relatively low inflation in April 2021 transitioning to relatively high inflation in 2022. The trends are similar across countries because global factors have impacted global prices. Record levels of inflation were recorded for the United States, the Euro Area, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
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Europe, Canada, and U.S. Annualized Inflation Rates (Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, Canadian Consumer Price Index, Rateinflation.com) April 21 April 22 May 22 June 22 July 22 Aug. 22 Sept. 22 Euro Area 1.6 7.4 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.9 Canada 3.4 6.8 7.7 8.1 7.6 7.0 6.9 United Kingdom 1.5 9.0 9.1 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 U.S. 4.2 8.3 8.6 9.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 The war in Ukraine has played a major role in fueling inflation, particularly through increasing food and energy prices. The U.S. and its allies would pay a price for Putin’s invasion. Economic sanctions against Russia would mean economic costs; there would also be a cost to not doing anything. The costs would be different, but there would be costs incurred no matter what course the United States chose. The United States and NATO allies placed economic sanctions against Russia and provided military support to Ukraine. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Russia was the world’s third-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids (after the United States and Saudi Arabia) in 2020 and was the second-largest producer of dry natural gas in 2020 (after the United States). Oil production in Russia far outpaces consumption in Russia. According to the International Energy Administration , Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil to global markets and the second largest crude oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia. Collectively, the European Union relies heavily on oil imports, with Russia a major supplier of energy. According to Eurostat , the European dependency on imports for oil and petroleum products reached a record high in 2020, with the European Union relying on net imports for 96.96% of its energy needs. In 2020, Russia accounted for approximately one-third of European oil imports. Europe also relies extensively on natural gas imports. Since Europe placed sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, European dependence on Russian energy has decreased, but remains significant. Russia was the largest provider of petroleum to Europe in 2021, comprising 25.9% of oil imports in 2021 but decreasing to 21.3% of imports in the second quarter of 2022. Russia was also the largest supplier of natural gas to the EU with a market share of 39.7% in 2021, but Russia accounted for only 22.9% of EU natural gas imports in the second quarter of 2022. Russia’s role as a leading exporter of oil to global markets combined with their invasion of Ukraine significantly contributed to uncertainty and price increases in energy markets. According to Investopedia.com , Brent Crude is the most widely used global benchmark for oil pricing, with approximately two-thirds of global crude contracts tied to the Brent Crude oil price. The graph below shows global Brent crude oil prices since 2020. After crashing in early 2020 due to the economic contraction caused by COVID, oil prices gradually rose as the global economy recovered and the demand for oil increased. Oil prices appeared to be stabilizing in late 2021. However, oil prices spiked from approximately $75 a barrel in late December 2021 to almost $120 a barrel in June 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The increased oil prices not only affected global energy costs, but also transportation costs for goods worldwide, both key factors contributing to global inflation. Since June, oil prices declined by approximately one-third to around $90 a barrel in October. Multiple factors contributed to the decline, including the global economic slowdown in 2022, fears of a pending recession in 2023, and lower demand from China. In addition, crude oil is generally priced in U.S. dollars, so purchases in other currencies are not only affected by the dollar price of crude oil but also by the exchange rate to the dollar. Generally, the value of the dollar has increased against most currencies as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised U.S. interest rates in 2022, creating more demand for the dollar.
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Global Brent Crude Oil Prices January 2020 – November 2022
Source: International Monetary Fund via U.S. EIA, Federal Reserve Economic Database
How did U.S. oil production respond to the oil market turbulence and uncertainties since COVID? The chart below shows U.S. monthly production of crude oil since January 2020. Note that in early 2020, U.S. oil production decreased by approximately 25%, from 12.8 million barrels per day in January to only 9.7 million barrels per day in May. Why? The graph above shows that the market price of oil drastically dropped from approximately $65 per barrel in December 2019 to nearly $25 per barrel in April 2020 as the demand for oil decreased due to the economic shock caused by COVID. When oil prices tank then oil profits decline, and there is much less incentive for oil production. In 2020, the oil industry had one of its worst years ever as oil prices sank, with many companies reporting losses for the year including ExxonMobil and Shell.
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Year
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020 12,852 12,842 12,797 11,914 9,713 10,442 11,006 10,577 10,921 10,457 11,196 11,168 2021 11,124 9,925 11,326 11,305 11,356 11,356 11,347 11,277 10,918 11,569 11,790 11,634 2022 11,369 11,316 11,701 11,668 11,629 11,797 11,873 11,975 As the economy began to recover in 2020, oil prices rose, and generally so did oil production. Oil prices doubled from their low in April to approximately $50 per barrel by yearend, with production increasing nearly 15% from a low of 9.7 million barrels per day in May to 11.1 million barrels per day in December. Oil prices generally rose gradually in 2021 before peaking at $83 per barrel in October and declining to $75 per barrel by December. Oil production rose approximately 5%, ending the year at 11.6 million barrels per day in December compared to 11.1 million barrels per day in December 2020. Oil production continued to increase in 2022, from 11.3 million barrels in January to nearly 12 million barrels per day in September. However, production was still less than the pre-COVID January 2020 level of 12.8 million barrels per day. It’s a balancing act for oil companies, as oil prices are affected by both supply and demand. The major focus of oil companies is to maximize profits and returns for shareholders. Increasing output may increase revenues and profits; however, increasing the supply of oil can also lower global oil prices and consequently lower profits. The volatility of the oil market, an expected economic slowdown, trends toward alternative energy, and plummeting oil prices in 2020 created a cautious environment for increasing production. In 2022 the focus on maximizing profits led to record company profits with ExxonMobil reporting its highest quarterly earnings ever in the third quarter and Shell reporting its highest quarterly earnings ever in the second quarter. The International Energy Agency expects the net income for the world’s oil and natural gas producers to double in 2022 from 2021, to a record high of $4 trillion - quite a turnaround from two years ago.
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In addition to global energy prices, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a significant impact on food prices. Global fertilizer prices rose to record levels in 2022. According to the USDA, fertilizer prices account for nearly one-fifth of U.S. farm cash costs, with an even greater share for corn and wheat producers. The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered import-export restrictions that compounded supply problems. Russia is the top exporter of agricultural fertilizer with an estimated 15% of the global market. The war has also had a major impact on the price of wheat. Russia and Ukraine combined for 30% of global wheat exports prior to the war. Wheat prices spiked 50% in early 2022, as wheat exports were disrupted by the war. Wheat prices significantly declined in summer aided by a United Nations brokered deal with Ukraine to establish a safe corridor for grain trade. Unfortunately, Russia backed out of that deal in late October. Significant uncertainty over wheat exports, and pricing, remains. Inflation by Product Category The table below shows price changes for selected products in October 2022 and over the past 12 months. Major product categories include Food, Energy, and all items less Food and Energy (which is also called “core inflation”). Subcategories include Food at Home, and four major products which had substantial price increases in the past 12 months under the “All Items less Food and Energy” category, including New Vehicles, Shelter, Medical Care Services, and Transportation.
Inflation by Product Category
Product Category
Percent Price Change October 2022
Percent Price Change 12-months Ended October 2022
All Items
0.4 0.6 0.4 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.8
7.7
Food
10.9 12.6 17.6
Food at Home
Energy
All Items less Food and Energy
6.3 8.4 6.9 5.4
New Vehicles
Shelter
Medical Care Services
-0.6
Transportation
0.8
15.2
For the 12-months ended October 2022 overall inflation rose 7.7%, with core inflation (all items less food and energy) increasing 6.3%. Consistently over the past year, food and energy have been the leading categories of inflation. Food at Home increased 12.6%; one bright spot was that the October increase of 0.4% was the lowest monthly increase since December 2021. Energy prices rose 17.6% for the past 12 months. The October price increase of 1.8% followed three consecutive monthly price declines. New vehicle prices, Shelter, and Medical Care Services all had significant increases over the past year at 8.4%, 6.9%, and 5.4%, respectively. Only Medical Care Services saw a price decline in October. Transportation prices, reflecting increased energy costs, rose 15.2% over the past 12 months and 0.8% in October.
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Wages and Profits The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is a measure of the nominal (unadjusted for inflation) wage growth of individuals. The graph below shows the 3-month moving average of median wage growth since 1998. Reflecting the strong labor market, wage growth increased significantly in late 2021 and 2022. Wage growth was 4.2% in September 2021, the highest growth since 2008. In 2022, wage growth peaked at 6.7%, declining slightly in October to 6.3%. Wage growth was higher between February 2022 and October 2022 than at any other time during the century. Although wage growth was at its highest point of the century, it still lagged inflation. as prices increased more than wages.
Wage Growth Tracker 3-Month Moving Average of Median Wage Growth, Hourly Data
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Although the purchasing power of individuals and families has been declining, corporate profit margins have generally remained strong during the inflationary period, indicating that cost increases have largely been passed on to consumers. According to FactSet , the net profit margin for the S&P 500 for the third quarter 2022 was 12.0%. Although profit margins have recently been declining, the third quarter of 2022 marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which the net profit margin was 12% or greater. Prior to 2021, the net profit margin had hit 12% in only one other quarter in the previous 10 years. The 5-year average for the net profit margin is 11.3%. Another measure of U.S. corporate profit margins tracked by the Federal Reserve has recently been at levels not seen since the early 1950s, indicating that the prices charged by businesses have exceeded their increased costs for production and labor. The graph below shows After-tax profits as a share of gross value added for non-financial corporations, a measure of aggregate profit margins. In both 2021 and 2022, aggregate profit margins approached 15% or higher, the highest level since the early 1950s.
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Corporate Profit Margins
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2023 Inflation and Interest Rates
Inflation is expected to gradually trend lower in 2023; the challenge will be to reduce not only the overall rate of inflation, but also the rate of inflation on those products that are not interest rate sensitive. As of September, the expectation by the Federal Reserve is that the annual rate of core inflation (all items less Food and Energy) will fall to approximately 3% in 2023. Rising interest rates will lower consumer and business spending, but uncertainty remains over inflationary contributing factors that the Federal Reserve cannot control, such as the impact of the Russia- Ukraine war on global food and energy prices. Theoretically, the Federal Reserve acts in an independent manner to balance economic growth with inflation. The Federal Reserve tries to accomplish this goal through targeting the “fed funds rate” – a very short-term interest rate that when changed, typically has a rippling effect through the financial markets. The Federal Reserve influences this rate by primarily controlling the money supply in the United States. The amount of money circulating in the economy has an impact on interest rates and credit conditions - more money, lower interest rates; less money, higher interest rates. The federal funds rate is increased when the Federal Reserve decreases the money supply by selling Treasury securities (technically called Open Market Operations). Increasing interest rates is the primary way the Federal Reserve fought inflation in 2022 and will continue to fight inflation in 2023. Central banks around the world, including the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, and Canada, have all raised interest rates to combat inflation. The goal is to increase borrowing costs, which in turn lowers overall demand through reduced consumer and business spending, which in turn lowers the rate of inflation. The federal funds rate started 2022 at a historical low of 0.00-0.25%; the federal funds rate will end the year at over 4%, which is a historically large increase in any given year. In March, the Federal Reserve began the upward trek for interest rates, including the unprecedented move of four consecutive 75 basis point increases in 2022. The expectation is for interest rates to peak in early to mid-2023 before declining. Increasing interest rates will reduce the overall rate of inflation as borrowing costs are increased, resulting in decreased consumer and business demand. The chart below shows the daily federal funds effective (market) rate since January 2018.
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Federal Funds Effective Rate
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database
However, the demand for some of the main product categories with high inflation are not interest rate sensitive. Food and medical care services saw significant price increases for the 12 months ended in October. Various factors contributed to the increase, but the low level of interest rates wasn’t one of them. The Russia-Ukraine war has had a significant impact on increasing food prices, contributing to record level global fertilizer prices and a spike in commodity prices in 2022. The war also played a significant role in energy prices, causing oil prices to jump which in turn increases transportation prices and shipping costs. Supply chain issues contributed to the price of new cars rising significantly due to the shortage of semiconductors. Between April 2021 and July 2022, new vehicle prices increased nearly 16%. Over that same period, vehicle sales declined by over 26% from 18.8 million to 13.8 million. New vehicle sales in July 2022 were lower than at any time between January 2012 and February 2020, before the impact of COVID on the economy. The problem was supply, not demand. Although the overall level of inflation should gradually decrease in 2023, there are factors not related to interest rates that affect the demand for specific products and their pricing. Hopefully the war in Ukraine can be peacefully resolved, supply chains continue to improve, and energy prices decline or least stabilize. Economic Growth Economic growth in 2023 is expected to be relatively weak as increasing interest rates slow the economy to reduce inflation. As of September, the Federal Reserve expected annual economic growth of approximately 1.2% for 2023 before accelerating in 2024. The main question will be if a recession can be avoided. Factors outside the control of the Federal Reserve, such as the war in Ukraine, energy prices, and supply chain issues, increase the uncertainty as to whether a recession can be avoided. However, if a recession does occur, the general expectation is that it will be relatively short-lived with a minor economic contraction. There are differing opinions as to whether the Federal Reserve started increasing interest rates too late, and differing opinions as to whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates too much. The primary objective right now for the Federal Reserve is to lower inflation, but the hope is that interest rates will not be raised too high, which would consequently contribute to the economy slipping into recession. What has been driving economic growth? To answer that question, the table below shows how changes in the four components of GDP contributed to the change in U.S. economic growth since 2020. Personal consumption accounts for approximately two-thirds of GDP, and personal consumption has been the key, consistent, driver of economic growth during the economic recovery, contributing positively to GDP growth since the third quarter of 2020. Despite the economic slowdown in the first half of the year, personal consumption contributed to GDP growth in each of the first three quarters in 2022. Increasing personal consumption contributed to economic growth for nine straight quarters, beginning with the third quarter of 2020 and continuing through the third quarter of 2022.
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Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product – Annualized Rate (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis) 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 GDP -4.6 -29.9 35.3 3.9
Personal Consumption
-4.25 -0.88 0.57 -0.05
-23.07
26.34 12.69 -0.97 -2.74
2.53 3.07 -0.01 -1.68
Investment
-9.65 1.57 1.30
Government Spending
Net Exports
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
2021 Q3
2021 Q4
GDP
6.3
7.0
2.7
7.0
Personal Consumption
6.98 -0.82 1.18 -1.02
7.84 0.30 -0.54 -0.60
1.98 1.78 -0.02 -1.08
2.14 5.14 -0.16 -0.16
Investment
Government Spending
Net Exports
2022 Q1
2022 Q2
2022 Q3
GDP
-1.6 0.91 0.98 -0.40 -3.13
-0.6 1.38 -2.83 -0.29 1.16
2.6
Personal Consumption
0.97 -1.59 0.42 2.77
Investment
Government Spending
Net Exports
As the Federal Reserve increased interest rates in 2022, the rate of growth of personal consumption declined relative to 2021 growth rates, but growth remained positive through 2022. The increasing interest rates contributed to significant declines in investment spending, including residential investment, for both the second and third quarters of 2022. Investment spending had contributed to an increase in economic growth for four consecutive quarters prior to the second quarter decline in 2022. Currently, the primary objective for the Federal Reserve is to lower inflation, even at the expense of economic growth. Given that objective, expect weak economic growth at best in 2023. Rising interest rates should temper both personal consumption and investment spending, at the expense of economic growth. Employment The unemployment rate will likely increase in 2023 as weak economic growth (at best) results from rising interest rates. As of September, the Federal Reserve expected the 2023 unemployment rate to increase to approximately 4.5%. There will be a strong emphasis by the Federal Reserve to cool down the labor market as a key component of reducing inflation. The strong consumer spending since the second quarter of 2020 reflects the strong labor market. Implicit in the Federal Reserve’s objective to lower inflation is to cool the hot labor market. The chart below shows the number of unemployed workers per job opening since 2007. The number of unemployed workers to job openings has been less than one since June 2021, lower than at any other time this century. In other words, there were approximately two job openings for every one person unemployed. “Labor shortages” appeared in many industries, leading to a relatively strong increase in wages in both 2021 and 2022. In 2022 the three-month moving average of median wage growth was at its highest levels of the century at over 6% between February and October.
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Number of Unemployed Persons per Job Opening
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The strong labor market and rising wages are a key concern expressed by the Federal Reserve, as wage growth can contribute to strong consumer demand, which in turn can contribute to inflation. Ideally, wage growth occurs without inflation; however, recent wage growth has been outpaced by inflation. A primary focus in 2023 by the Federal Reserve will be to reduce wage growth by balancing the number of unemployed persons with job openings. Wage growth in 2023 should be tempered by growing unemployment and a cooling labor market that result from weak economic growth. Summary In 2022 inflation was a global problem, ranging from 7-10% in the Euro area, United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. Inflation was driven by global factors, including the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on food and energy prices. Central banks around the world, including the United States Federal Reserve, began increasing interest rates to raise borrowing costs and consequently lower consumer and business demand. Over the years, a 2% inflation target has become an international standard across central banks around the globe, including the Federal Reserve. Global interest rates will likely increase until decreasing inflation makes the 2% target seem achievable. As of September, the expectation by the Federal Reserve is that core inflation will fall to approximately 3% in 2023. However, like most forecasts, it is subject to change and error, especially since there are global factors outside the control of the Federal Reserve that will impact inflation. As a result of rising interest rates, 2023 is projected to be a relatively weak year at best for economic growth, with the Federal Reserve predicting growth of only around 1%. There remain concerns over a possible recession, partially because of concerns that the Federal Reserve began raising interest lates too late or may raise them too much. However, if a recession does occur, the general expectation is that it will be relatively short-lived with a minor economic contraction. The number one issue for the Federal Reserve is to lower inflation and increasing interest rates is the primary way that the Federal Reserve can battle inflation. There is generally an inverse relationship between interest rates and economic growth. Interest rates will be increased until the long-range inflationary target of 2% once again seems achievable. The increased interest rates should lower consumer and business spending, resulting in weak economic growth. The Federal Reserve not only wants to lower inflation, but also inflationary expectations. The federal funds rate is expected to be around 5% in early 2023, with subsequent increases or decreases subject to changes in the rate of inflation.
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Slowing economic growth should cool the labor market, reflected by an increasing unemployment rate, lower wage increases, and fewer job openings. The Federal Reserve expected the 2023 unemployment rate to increase to approximately 4.5% from the October 2022 rate of 3.7%. A little historical perspective can help provide context for understanding 2023. If unemployment rises from sub 4.0% levels in 2022 to 5% in 2023, that will equate to the unemployment rate in September 2016 when the U.S. was in the midst of its longest economic expansion. The federal funds rate is expected to be approximately 5% in early 2023, which would equate to rates that prevailed in 2006. In 2022, the annualized inflation of 9.1% in June was the highest inflation since 1981, before falling in October to 7.7%. If inflation could be reduced to 5% in 2023, that would put inflation approximately equal to the inflation rate in 1990; a decrease to 4% would approximately equal the 2008 rate. 2023 economic growth of 1% would match economic growth in 2001; growth of 1.5% would match economic growth in 2011. 2023 will see a continued battle against global inflation with the Federal Reserve likely to continue raising interest rates. Weak economic growth would also place downward pressure on energy prices through lower demand. Global interest rates will likely increase until a global 2% inflation rate target seems achievable. However, interest rates alone do not determine the level of inflation. Global unknowns remain, such as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy markets and lingering supply chain issues. Although weak economic growth or even a recession may occur in 2023, the Federal Reserve expects economic growth to rebound in 2024 as markets stabilize and inflationary expectations recede.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Scott Wallace, Ph.D. Director and Editor, CBEI; Professor of Economics; School of Business and Economics Kyle Pulvermacher Research Assistant, CBEI
Kyle Pulvermacher, CBEI research assistant, is a co-author to this issue’s Economic Indicator report. His creative contributions to the charts for Table 5: Lifecycle of the Expansion reveal how our recent macroeconomic business cycle differs greatly from the pre-pandemic cycle. Thank you, Kyle! As Kevin Bahr’s report clearly describes, our current (and near future) economy faces serious issues with respect to high inflation and tight labor markets. In response to these challenges, we have added two tables of economic indicators that provide greater depth of analysis into those two issues: Table 2: Changes in Price Levels and Table 3: Employment Indicators.
National Economic Statistics Table 1 Key Economic Indicators 2022 Third Quarter
% ∆ Yr. Ago
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in Billions) Real Gross Domestic Product (in Billions)
$25,663.30 $20,021.70
9.0% 1.8% 5.3%
Industrial Production (2017 = 100)
105.2
Description: • Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in Billions): The dollar value of all final goods and services produced in a year, using current prices. • Real Gross Domestic Product (in Billions): The dollar value of all final goods and services produced in a year, using prices from a base year (2017) to adjust for inflation. • Industrial Production Index: Measures real output (as a percentage of actual output in 2017) produced in the United States in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Analysis: • The third quarter increase of Real GDP of 1.8% from 2021 Q3 reveals that economic growth has slowed considerably since the first quarter which witnessed an increase of 3.6% from 2021 Q1. Declining growth rates reflect an economy operating at close to full employment and the early impacts of Fed’s interest rate hikes. The large difference between nominal GDP and Real GDP for the third quarter reflect dramatic increases in the overall price level. For more analysis on Real GDP, see Table 4. • The industrial production index is an excellent indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector. The third quarter reading of the industrial production index increased by 5.3% since 2021 Q3 revealing continued strong performance in manufacturing, reflecting strong consumer demand and the easing of supply chain bottlenecks.
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Table 2 Changes in Price Levels (September 2022)
12-Month % Change
1-Month % Change
Consumer Price Index (1982 - 84 = 100) Consumer Price Index (1982 - 84 = 100) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
8.2 6.6 6.2 8.5
0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Description: • Consumer Price Index (CPI): Measures the average monthly change in the price of a representative basket of goods and services bought by consumers. • Core CPI (CPI less food & energy): Measures the average monthly change in prices for a typical basket of goods, excluding food and energy. • Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE): Captures monthly changes in price levels over a wider range of consumer expenditures that account for changes in consumer behavior. • Producer Price Index (PPI): Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Output includes intermediate goods along with final goods and services. Analysis: • After peaking in June, inflation as measured by the CPI began a slow descent in July. In September, inflation increased by 8.2% on an annual basis. More recently, the CPI increased by 7.7% in October, raising hopes for a continual decline in upcoming months. • The Core CPI which excludes food and energy items from the basket of goods is an important indicator of inflation because food and energy prices tend to be highly volatile. By eliminating these items, it often is easier to detect trends in overall price changes. The core CPI peaked in September, increasing by 6.6% from one year ago, the highest since August 1982. The good news is that the rate of increase for October fell to 6.3%. • CPI data gauges the change in prices of a fixed basket of goods over time. As such, it fails to incorporate changes in consumer buying patterns in response to changing prices and other factors. The PCE price index does account for changes in consumer behavior. In September, the PCE price index increased by 6.2% compared to a year ago. Like the CPI, the PCE index peaked in June at 6.9% but has declined since then. • By tracking changes in prices that manufacturers and wholesalers pay for goods during different stages of production, the PPI can be a leading indicator of future consumer prices. After peaking in March at 11.7%, the percent increase in the PPI from a year ago has been consistently declining each month. The October report show that the PPI rose by 8.0%, down from 8.4% in September. This maybe a sign that firms are facing diminishing cost pressures and therefore could indicate declining consumer price increases in upcoming months.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
Table 3 National Employment Indicators (Third Quarter) 2022 Third Quarter
2021 Third Quarter
Unemployment Rate
3.5
4.7
Labor Force Participation Rate Employment-Population Ratio
62.3 60.1
61.7 58.8
Description: • Unemployment Rate: The number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. • Labor Force Participation Rate: The percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work. • Employment-Population Ratio: The share of the total population that are employed. Analysis: • Compared with Q3 2021, the unemployment rate was substantially lower at 3.5 % matching the pre-pandemic unemployment rate in February 2020. September 2022 and February 2020 were the lowest monthly unemployment rates since July 1969! The concern with a tight labor market is that employers will need to compete for workers by raising wages, possibly fueling a wage-price spiral that leads to higher rates of inflation. • The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) includes those people who are working or are unemployed but are actively looking for work. It is an important gauge of the society’s overall labor market capacity. The LFPR changes as people enter and leave the labor force over time. In February 2020 before the pandemic, the LFPR was 63.4%. Covid-19 caused a steep and swift decline to 60.2% in April 2020. After April, the LFPR initially rose quickly but has been increasing only slowly since August 2020. For 2022 Q3, the LFPR stood at 62.3%, still below the February 2020 mark. Covid-19’s long haul effects, retirements by baby boomers, and Covid related child-care issues are the likely culprits for lower labor force participation rate. • The Employment – Population (EP) Ratio differs from LFPR in that it doesn’t include those who are unemployed and are actively looking for work. The EP ratio is an important indicator of ability of existing labor resources to support economic growth. Real GDP growth depends upon the size of the civilian population, the percentage of the population employed, and labor productivity. Holding all else constant, the greater the employment-population ratio, the greater potential for real GDP growth. Like LFPR, the EP ratio declined sharply with the advent of the pandemic, falling to 51.3% in May 2020. It has rebounded sharply since and stood at 60.1% in September 2022 but is still below the pre-pandemic February 2020 ratio of 62.3%.
Central Wisconsin Report - Fall 2022
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Table 4 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) Line Percent Change at an Annual Rate 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 1 Gross Domestic Product Percentage Points at Annual Rates 7.0 2.7 7.0 -1.6 -0.6 2.6 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures 7.84 1.98 2.14 0.91 1.38 0.97 3 Goods 2.65 -1.96 0.55 -0.02 -0.61 -0.28 4 Durable Goods 0.92 -2.22 0.44 0.64 -0.24 -0.07 5 Nondurable Goods 1.74 0.26 0.12 -0.66 -0.37 -0.20 6 Services 5.19 3.94 1.58 0.93 1.99 1.24 7 Gross Private Domestic Investments 0.30 1.78 5.14 0.98 -2.83 -1.59 8 Fixed Investment 1.05 -0.18 0.12 0.83 -0.92 -0.89 9 Nonresidential 1.29 0.10 0.17 0.98 0.01 0.49 10 Structures -0.08 -0.18 -0.35 -0.11 -0.34 -0.41 11 Equipment 0.73 -0.09 0.10 0.55 -0.11 0.54 12 Intellectual Property Products 0.64 0.38 0.42 0.54 0.46 0.36 13 Residential -0.24 -0.29 -0.05 -0.15 -0.93 -1.37 14 Change in Private Inventories -0.75 1.96 5.01 0.15 -1.91 -0.70 15 Net Exports of Goods and Services -0.60 -1.08 -0.16 -3.13 1.16 2.77 16 Exports 0.51 -0.13 2.37 -0.53 1.51 1.63 17 Goods 0.26 -0.28 1.62 -0.58 1.18 1.34 18 Services 0.25 0.15 0.74 0.06 0.33 0.29 19 Imports -1.11 -0.95 -2.53 -2.60 -0.35 1.14 20 Goods -0.49 -0.05 -2.20 -2.38 0.05 1.20 21 Services -0.61 -0.90 -0.33 -0.22 -0.41 -0.06 22 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investments -0.54 -0.02 -0.16 -0.40 -0.29 0.42 23 Federal -0.50 -0.51 0.01 -0.36 -0.22 0.23 24 National Defense -0.10 -0.12 -0.20 -0.33 0.05 0.17 25 Nondefense -0.40 -0.39 0.21 -0.03 -0.28 0.06 26 State and Local -0.04 0.49 -0.17 -0.04 -0.06 0.19 Bureau of Economic Analysis Description: • The above table decomposes percent changes in Real GDP into its components (consumption, investment, government, and net exports) and more specific subcomponents. Analysis: • Table 1 showed that Real GDP increased by 1.8% from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022. Here we are looking at quarterly percentage changes on an annualized basis, breaking down the numbers to reveal how components and subcomponents of Real GDP contribute to these percentage changes. • While the National Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER) is the final arbiter of recessions, a common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth indicate an economy in recession. While the economy experienced negative real GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2022, the robust increases in employment during this time suggest the economy was not in recession. The numbers, however, do indicate a slowing economy. • Despite the 2.6% increase in real GDP in third quarter, a look at the components and subcomponents that make up Real GDP do signify an economic slowdown. • The positive real GDP number was mainly the result of a 2.77% quarterly increase in Net Exports (Exports minus Imports) that largely reflected increases in exports of fuel to Europe because of the Ukraine conflict. • Rising interest rates have resulted in a 1.59% decline in gross private domestic investment with a 1.37% decrease in residential investment dominating. While consumption grew modestly at 0.97%, increased spending on services more than offset declines in spending on goods.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
Table 5 Lifecycle of the Expansion
Description: • Table 5 shows two charts that plot the unemployment rate against average weekly hours in manufacturing on a quarterly basis since the beginning of the current economic expansion in September 2009. • There are four phases: • In the initial phase of an expansion, unemployment is stable and remains high while there is a sharp rise in hours per week. • In the second phase, the unemployment rate falls while hours per week tend to be relatively stable. • The top chart suggests that our expansionary phase may be coming to an end. In Q3 2022, average weekly hours fell while the unemployment rate was unchanged compared to Q1 2022. In the last stage of an expansion before a contraction, employers often reduce employees’ hours before beginning layoffs. This, however, could be a one-off result. We need to see more. • The bottom chart clearly shows the stark difference between the two most recent business cycles. • The solid blue line begins in Q1 2008, the beginning of the Great Recession. From Q1 2008 to Q1 2009, both average weekly hours and the unemployment rate increased indicating a recession. The recession officially ended in Q1 2009. After Q1 2009 during early phase of the expansion, average weekly hours increased while unemployment remained high. After Q4 2010, average weekly hours continued to climb while the unemployment rate began to fall. Q4 2019 was the last quarter of a very long and slow recovery and expansion. • The dotted red line shows the sharp reduction in average hours and dramatic increase in the unemployment rate from Q4 2019 to Q2 2020. It also shows a rapid recovery after Q2 2020 with rapid reduction in unemployment rates and increases in weekly hours. • The two very different trajectories of these business cycles reflect the impacts of two dissimilar causes of economic recession. The slow recovery and expansion after the Great Recession was the result of severe imbalances within the financial system; it took a considerable amount of time for households and businesses to repair their balance sheets. Our more recent experience reflects the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic which was a true shock coming from outside the economic system. The rapidity and scale of the shock along with the swift recovery is reflected in the shape of the business cycle. • In the third phase, the unemployment rate is stable and hours per week decline. • A contraction occurs when unemployment rises and hours per week falls. Analysis:
Central Wisconsin Report - Fall 2022
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Labor Market Statistics
Table 6 Labor Market Indicators from LAUS and retrieved from WisConomy
Labor Force
Unemployment Rate
Employment
Labor Market Area
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3
2021 Q3
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
Portage County
37.5 13.9 72.7 33.6
-3.0 -2.7 -2.2 -2.5 -0.7
3.0 3.5 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.5
2.6 2.8 2.3 3.3 3.4 4.7
36.4 13.4 70.7 32.5
-3.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.7 -0.5
City of Stevens Point Marathon County
Wood County
Wisconsin
3,114
3,014
United States
164,689
2.0
158,936
3.3
Description: • Labor Force: Includes all people over the age 16 who are either working or actively looking for work (in thousands). • Unemployment Rate: The number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. • Employment: Includes all people over age 16 who are working (in thousands). Analysis: • The above table shows a disturbing trend of a shrinking labor force in the Central Wisconsin region and the state of Wisconsin relative to a year ago. A smaller labor force can have negative implications for future growth. • The unemployment rates in Central Wisconsin are marginally higher than the historically low rates of a year ago. Unemployment rates for Wisconsin and our region are still lower than the national unemployment rate. • Given higher unemployment rates, it is no surprise that the level of employment has declined in Wisconsin and Central Wisconsin.
Table 7 Wisconsin Employment by Industry Sector from Payroll Employment Survey - CES and retrieved from WisConomy
Natural Resources and Mining
Trade, Transport and Utilities
Nonfarm Jobs
Construction Jobs Manufacturing
Information Jobs
2022 Q3 (x1000) 2,952.5
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2.2
133.6 5.9
473.4
1.1
3.9
11.4 545.5
2.3
46.5
3.1
Education and Health
Leisure and Hospitality
Finance Jobs
Business Services
Other Services
Government
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
2022 Q3 (x1000)
% ∆ Yr. Ago
154.6
0.3 329.4
4.6 453.8 0.5
274.0 7.2
143.3 -0.1 394.5
0.2
Description: • Employment data are classified using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The above table categorizes data according to major industry sectors (in thousands). Analysis: • The above table shows employment gains in almost all industry sectors. • Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector increase by 7.2% over the third quarter of 2021.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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