ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Scott Wallace, Ph.D. Director and Editor, CBEI; Professor of Economics; School of Business and Economics Kyle Pulvermacher Research Assistant, CBEI
Kyle Pulvermacher, CBEI research assistant, is a co-author to this issue’s Economic Indicator report. His creative contributions to the charts for Table 5: Lifecycle of the Expansion reveal how our recent macroeconomic business cycle differs greatly from the pre-pandemic cycle. Thank you, Kyle! As Kevin Bahr’s report clearly describes, our current (and near future) economy faces serious issues with respect to high inflation and tight labor markets. In response to these challenges, we have added two tables of economic indicators that provide greater depth of analysis into those two issues: Table 2: Changes in Price Levels and Table 3: Employment Indicators.
National Economic Statistics Table 1 Key Economic Indicators 2022 Third Quarter
% ∆ Yr. Ago
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in Billions) Real Gross Domestic Product (in Billions)
$25,663.30 $20,021.70
9.0% 1.8% 5.3%
Industrial Production (2017 = 100)
105.2
Description: • Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in Billions): The dollar value of all final goods and services produced in a year, using current prices. • Real Gross Domestic Product (in Billions): The dollar value of all final goods and services produced in a year, using prices from a base year (2017) to adjust for inflation. • Industrial Production Index: Measures real output (as a percentage of actual output in 2017) produced in the United States in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Analysis: • The third quarter increase of Real GDP of 1.8% from 2021 Q3 reveals that economic growth has slowed considerably since the first quarter which witnessed an increase of 3.6% from 2021 Q1. Declining growth rates reflect an economy operating at close to full employment and the early impacts of Fed’s interest rate hikes. The large difference between nominal GDP and Real GDP for the third quarter reflect dramatic increases in the overall price level. For more analysis on Real GDP, see Table 4. • The industrial production index is an excellent indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector. The third quarter reading of the industrial production index increased by 5.3% since 2021 Q3 revealing continued strong performance in manufacturing, reflecting strong consumer demand and the easing of supply chain bottlenecks.
Central Wisconsin Report - Fall 2022
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