Population Change
Home Price Change
2022
2022
2021
2021
1.5%
1.5%
28%
22%
Phoenix, AZ
1.0%
0.6%
11%
Stockton, CA
24%
1.3%
1.9%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
23% 28%
0.7%
1.3%
Atlanta, GA
18% 23%
3.5%
1.8%
Boise, ID
35% 10%
1.4%
1.8%
Charlotte, NC
20% 24%
0.9%
1.2%
Las Vegas, NV
20% 20%
1.4%
1.9%
Charleston, SC
18% 23%
0.7%
1.8%
Nashville, TN
19% 25%
2.5%
2.7%
Austin, TX
33% 17%
1.3%
1.1%
Ogden, UT
28% 16%
0.4%
0.0%
Tacoma, WA
22% 12%
The table shows the percentage change in population and home prices during the boom for a dozen markets around the country. The year population rose the most and the year home prices rose the most are highlighted. With the exception of Austin and maybe Phoenix, the pattern is clear. The peak of the price change occurs in the year of strongest population growth. Even strong population growth can’t keep prices high, how- ever. Just look at Boise and Austin, where prices increased much less
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC
Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor. The company’s Investors Metro Analysis shows the opportunity and risk in 200 local real estate markets at www.LocalMarketMonitor.com, including strategic analysis of all local Zip Codes. Winzer has analyzed real estate markets for more than 30 years, and his views on real estate markets are often quoted in the national press. Previously, Winzer was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company acquired by Dun and Bradstreet in 2007. Winzer is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and holds a master’s degree in finance from Boston University.
in 2022 (and will be lower in 2023), despite high population growth. When home prices in any market increase 40% in two years, they’ll come down again; there just aren’t enough buyers to support those prices (meanwhile, builders are increasing the supply as fast as they can). Now that the cause of the boom has disappeared, it’s just a matter of time and timing. •
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