MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective The December position report reinforces a market that is transitioning toward a more balanced supply- and-demand profile. Export demand continues to strengthen and diversify geographically, while domestic softness remains the primary headwind for overall shipment growth. Supply visibility has improved meaningfully, and receipts continue to validate a smaller crop than originally projected. As the industry moves into Q1 and approaches bloom, market fundamentals support a stable-to-firm trajectory, particularly if India and other key export markets begin to accelerate coverage. With inventories balanced, conservative commitments, and global buyers under-covered relative to historical norms, the market is increasingly positioned for improved confidence and steadier price discovery. Discipline remains critical as the industry works toward a sustainable equilibrium that supports long-term demand development and grower returns. We look forward to connecting with you all at the Peanut and Tree Nut Processors Association, MEWA India and Gulfood. Domestic: December shipments reached 49.1 million pounds, down 12.4% from the same period last year. The domestic market continues to experience softer demand with year-to-date results down 18% in total. Forward commitments for the domestic market stand at 202.6 million pounds, down from prior year by 7.96%, demonstrating the continued near- in booking strategy we have seen from buyers. Anticipation is that buyers will become more active in the coming weeks to cover remaining Q1 & Q2 needs. COMMITMENTS Total commitments currently stand at 496.2 million pounds, trailing last year by 11.6%. New sales for the month totaled 196.7 million pounds with the domestic market securing an additional 42.8 million pounds, while export added an additional 153.9 million pounds of new coverage. In total, commitments for the domestic market are now just over 202 million pounds while exports are hovering just above 293 million pounds. Uncommitted inventory is up 4.4% from last year, sitting at 1.38 billion pounds versus 1.32 billion pounds. CROP Receipts through December reached 2.51 billion pounds, reflecting a 2.5% decline compared to previous crop year. Overall crop size after observing the December receipts will likely finish around 2.7 billion pounds. This season, the slower receipt pace was amplified by the late fall and early winter rains. All hullers and shellers will wrap up by the end of January. Growers continue to focus on postharvest orchard activities. The next key milestone that will provide the first insight into the 2026 crop is bloom in February.
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ALMOND FACTS
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