FIELD NOTES with MEL MACHADO
2025 Crop Reflections By the time this issue of Almond Facts arrives in your mailbox, the last loads of the 2025 crop will have been received. While handlers will be reporting their receipts for a few more months, enough is known to provide a good evaluation of crop quality and yields, allowing us to take stock of the year and look forward to 2026.
Total Production While the determination of the final crop total is still a few months away, all indications are pointing to a crop in the low 2.7-billion-pound range. Several factors can influence the ultimate volume of any crop, and as I’ve noted in a previous article, crop estimating includes some art to accompany the science. Regional Yields When evaluating crops, regional variation is a prime consideration. At Blue Diamond , we break the Central Valley into three regions. North – All Sacramento Valley counties Central – Alameda, Contra Costa and San Joaquin to Merced counties South – Madera, south to Kern County Lowest yields as a percentage of each year’s statewide average are found in the northern areas of the Valley. Yield potential increases traveling to the south, with greatest yields reported in the southern San Joaquin Valley. The charts to the right show the relative yields expressed as a percentage of the industry average, and the actual yields from 2014 through 2024.
Note that the northern region was adversely impacted by the bloom- time freeze in 2022. Recent data shows that growers in the southern San Joaquin Valley have endured comparatively reduced yields, the result of environmental factors, and higher production costs inspiring growers to reduce crop inputs. This trend has continued into the 2025 crop. Many observers expected
yields, particularly in Kern County, to recover from previous years. However, while Kern’s production has risen above other southern San Joaquin Valley counties, it appears that it may fall short of expectations. Turnout Percentages Probably the most misrepresented and misunderstood factor in crop evaluations, turnout percentages, played a major role in the 2024 and 2025 crops.
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ALMOND FACTS
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