Case 2:25-cv-00575-APG-BNW Document 237 Filed 11/24/25 Page 5 of 29
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preliminary injunction, a plaintiff must demonstrate: (1) a likelihood of success on the merits, (2) a likelihood of irreparable harm, (3) the balance of hardships favors the plaintiff, and (4) an injunction is in the public interest. Winter v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc. , 555 U.S. 7, 20 (2008). Alternatively, under the sliding scale approach, a plaintiff must demonstrate (1) serious questions on the merits, (2) a likelihood of irreparable harm, (3) the balance of hardships tips sharply in the plaintiff’s favor, and (4) an injunction is in the public interest. Alliance for the Wild Rockies v. Cottrell , 632 F.3d 1127, 1135 (9th Cir. 2011). But where a party seeks to dissolve an injunction, “the burden with respect to these criteria is on the party seeking dissolution.” Karnoski , 926 F.3d at 1198. I dissolve the injunction because the Board has shown that Kalshi is not likely to succeed on the merits, although there are serious questions on the merits. The Board also has shown that the balance of hardships does not tip sharply in Kalshi’s favor. Rather, the balance of hardships tips in favor of the Board, and the public interest favors dissolving the injunction. IV. KALSHI IS NOT LIKELY TO SUCCED ON THE MERITS, BUT THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ON THE MERITS. As I ruled in Crypto , event contracts that turn on the outcomes of sporting events are not swaps and thus do not fall within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. 2025 WL 2916151, at *11. I adopt in full my analysis in Crypto , so I give only a summary here. In brief, I ruled in Crypto that similar event contracts based on the outcome of live events are not “swaps” within the meaning of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and thus do not fall within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction in 7 U.S.C. § 2(a). Id. at *6-11. First, I have authority to construe the CEA to determine what falls within that jurisdictional provision, such as what constitutes a “swap.” Id. Second, I interpreted the relevant provision of the CEA’s definition of a swap related to event
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