Case: 25-1922 Document: 73 Page: 9
Date Filed: 08/14/2025
massive sea change in gambling regulation by inserting the word “swap” to cover wagers on the outcome of sporting events. Appellants’ Br. 16–26. Kalshi says much in response. But all it does is confirm that Kalshi’s definition of “swap” is limitless and would force all gambling onto CFTC- regulated markets, undoing numerous federal gambling laws in the pro- cess. The State’s definition, in contrast, gives meaning to the Act without forcing parents at the local little-league game to register with the CFTC before exchanging friendly wagers. Kalshi could not be any clearer that essentially any sporting event has “financial consequences” and therefore any bet on any sporting event (or, really, any event) must be a “swap.” Appellants’ Br. 36. This includes such attenuated examples as “the outcome” of “the World Cup” affecting “the gross domestic product of an entire country,” because winning the World Cup leads to a country’s “greater international appeal,” causing “enhanced export growth,” which in turn leads to a short-term increase in GDP. Marco Mello, A Kick for the GDP: The Effect of Winning the FIFA World Cup , 86 Oxford Bulletin of Econ. & Stat. 1313, 1329 (2024). And the Philadelphia Eagles generating over $1 billion from their 2025 Super Bowl win because it caused the city to hold a parade, where fans pur- chased food and hotel rooms. Rachel Moore, Eagles to generate $1.2B eco- nomic impact with Super Bowl, parade, season , PHL 17 News (Feb. 13, 2025), https://tinyurl.com/2pfedw6t. Given Kalshi’s “level of generality, any activity can be looked upon as commercial” or financial, United States
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