Case: 25-7516, 01/23/2026, DktEntry: 33.1, Page 43 of 110
an “outcome.” An “event” is “a happening of some significance that took
place or will take place, in a certain location, during a particular interval of
time.” 1-ER-12 (citation omitted); see, e.g. , Webster’s New World College Dic-
tionary 492 (4th ed. 2004) (a “happening or occurrence, esp. when im-
portant”); Oxford English Dictionary (2025), perma.cc/XER3-NGE7 (OED,
Event ) (“[s]omething that happens or takes place, esp. something significant
or noteworthy”). An “outcome” is a “result” of the event. Webster’s New
World College Dictionary 1023.
Kalshi’s sports and election contracts depend on the outcomes of
events, not the “events” themselves. 1-ER-12. Indeed, in its self-certifica-
tions, Kalshi calls its sports and election contracts “outcome” contracts. 2-
ER-110 (¶ 45). For example, a contract on the winner of an NFL game is
not based on whether the game occurs, but which team wins. Crypto.com ,
2025 WL 2916151, at *9. Props and parlays are not even based on the pri-
mary result of a sporting event (who wins), but instead on secondary results
(such as the number of points scored), which Kalshi again labels “outcomes”
in its self-certifications. 1-StateSER-58. Ordinary English speakers do not
call the number of points scored in a football game an “event.” See
Crypto.com , 2025 WL 2916151, at *8.
Kalshi’s contracts likewise are not based on “contingenc[ies].” 1-ER-
12. “Contingency” means “contingent event”—a happening that may or may
not occur—not the result of an event already scheduled to occur.
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