Case: 25-7516, 01/23/2026, DktEntry: 33.1, Page 46 of 110
applies to wagers on the outcomes of events, which reinforces that Kalshi’s
contracts are sports bets, not “swaps.”
Finally, Kalshi argues (Br. 56-57) that the district court did not ex-
pressly address election contracts (a tiny percentage of Kalshi’s business).
But the court’s distinction between outcomes and events applies to election
contracts—indeed, Kalshi calls those contracts “political-outcome con-
tracts.” 2-ER-110 (¶ 45). And the court’s holding is fully consistent with
the holding of the district court in the District of Columbia, which addressed
only the CFTC’s authority under the Special Rule, not the definition of
“swap” or the CEA’s preemptive effect. KalshiEX , 2024 WL 4164694, at *7.
Associated with potential economic consequences . The swaps
definition also requires that the event be “associated with a potential finan-
cial, economic, or commercial consequence.” 7 U.S.C. § 1a(47)(A)(ii).
This requirement limits qualifying events to those where there is an
existing economic risk that companies seek to hedge. “Associate” means to
“connect” or “join together” or to “connect in the mind.” Webster’s New World
Collegiate Dictionary 86; see Oxford English Dictionary (2025), perma.cc/
EW6F-NPP2 (“[t]o connect in idea”); 1-ER-12 n.1. Events that are “associ-
ated with” potential financial, economic, or commercial consequences are
those that are “inherently joined or connected with a potential financial,
economic, or commercial consequence.” 1-ER-13-14 (footnote omitted).
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