occurrence or event since at least 2008. 7 In this document, the term “prediction market” refers to a CFTC-registered DCM or swap execution facility (SEF) that offers event contracts for trading. 8 Since 2021, the Commission has observed a significant increase in the number of event contracts listed for trading on prediction markets, as well as in the diversity of occurrences and events underlying such contracts. 9 The Commission has also received recent applications for DCM registration, and expressions of interest regarding DCM registration, from entities that have indicated that they are interested primarily, or exclusively, in operating prediction markets. 10 As noted above, event contracts can fall within multiple subsections of the CEA’s definition of “swap.” CEA section 1a(47)(A)(ii) defines “swap” to include “any agreement, contract, or transaction . . . that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery (other than a dividend on an equity security) that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with 7 See 2008 Concept Release. See also Contracts & Products: Event Contracts, available at https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/ContractsProducts/index.htm . 8 In addition to DCMs, a SEF may make any swap, including an event contract, available for trading. See CEA section 5h, 7 U.S.C. 7b-3. However, swap trading on a SEF is not available to the general public, but rather only to institutional investors within the definition of “eligible contract participant” in CEA section 1a(18), 7 U.S.C. 1a(18). 9 From 2006-2020, DCMs listed for trading an average of approximately five event contracts per year. In 2021, this number increased to 131, and the number of newly-listed event contracts per year remained at a similar level until 2025, when DCMs certified approximately 1,600 event contracts for listing for trading. These event contracts are based on a wide variety of financial indices, economic indicators, weather events, political events, international events, scientific and cultural events, current events, and sporting events. A list of event contracts certified for listing is available on the CFTC’s web site. See https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/IndustryFilings/TradingOrganizationProducts?Status=Certified& Category=Event . 10 As of March 2026, Commission staff are reviewing several pending applications for DCM designation from entities with a stated interest in operating prediction markets. Commission staff have received multiple additional inquiries from other entities indicating an interest in applying for DCM registration in order to operate prediction markets.
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