INSIDER TRADING IS GOING TO GET PEOPLE KILLED War markets are a na8onal-security threat.
MARCH 07, 2026
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might sEll be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. Polymarket placed the odds at just 14 percent, neOng “magamyman” a profit of more than $120,000. Everyone knew that an aRack might be in the works—some American aircraT carriers had already been deployed to the Middle East weeks ago—but the Iranian government was caught off guard by the Eming. Although the ayatollah surely was aware of the risks to his life, he presumably did not know that he would be targeted on this parEcular Saturday morning. Yet on Polymarket, plenty of warning signs pointed to an impending aRack. The day before, 150 users bet at least $1,000 that the United States would strike Iran within the next 24 hours, according to a New York Times analysis. UnEl then, few people on the pla[orm were beOng that kind of money on an immediate aRack.
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