ousted at roughly 10 percent. Even if Maduro and his team had been glued to Polymarket, it’s hard to imagine that such long odds would have compelled him to flee in the middle of the night. And even with so many people beOng last Friday on an imminent strike in Iran, Polymarket forecast only a 26 percent chance, at most, of an aRack the next day. What’s the signal, and what’s the noise? In both cases, someone adept at parsing predicEon markets could have known that something was up. “It’s possible to spot these bets ahead of Eme,” Rajiv Sethi, a Barnard College economist who studies predicEon markets, told me. There are some telltale behaviors that could help disEnguish a military contractor beOng off a state secret from a college student mindlessly scrolling on his phone aTer one too many cans of Celsius. Someone who’s using a newly created account to wager a lot of money against the convenEonal wisdom is probably the former, not the laRer. And spoOng these kinds of suspicious beRors is only geOng easier. The predicEon-market boom has created a coRage industry of tools that instantaneously flag potenEal insider trading—not for legal purposes but so that you, too, can profit off what the select few already know.
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