strike Iran—breeding panic and paranoia. More fundamentally, predicEon markets risk warping the basic incenEves of war, Goldenberg said. He gave the example of a Ukrainian military commander making less than $1,000 a month, who could place bets that go against his own military’s objecEve. “Maybe you choose to retreat a day early because you can double, triple, or quadruple your money and then send that back to your family,” he said. Again, we don’t know for sure whether any of this is happening. That may be the scariest part. As long as Polymarket lets anyone bet on war anonymously, we may never know. Last Saturday, the day of the iniEal Iran aRack, Polymarket processed a record $478 million in bets, according to one analysis. All the while, Polymarket conEnues to wedge itself into the mainstream. Substack recently struck a partnership with Polymarket to incorporate the pla[orm’s forecasts into its newsleRers. (“Journalism is beRer when it’s backed by live markets,” Polymarket posted on X in announcing the deal.) All of this makes the site even more valuable as an intelligence asset, and even more destrucEve for the rest of us. Polymarket keeps launching more war markets: Will the U.S. strike Iraq? Will Israel strike Beirut? Will Iran strike Cyprus? Somewhere out there, someone likely already knows the answers.
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