interest utility depend on the type of event in question? What factors should the Commission consider in evaluating and balancing the public interest in this scenario? 30. Some events underlying event contracts are under the control of a single individual or small group of individuals. What role should this aspect of event contracts play in the Commission’s consideration of how prediction markets should be regulated? Do the considerations change depending on the type of event in question? Are there particular challenges related to cross-market manipulation – for example, where an individual or small group of individuals seeks to move the prediction market to influence another market, or vice versa? Are prediction markets more likely than other DCMs or SEFs to be susceptible to manipulation? Why or why not? 31. CEA section 6(c)(1) provides that “[i]t shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, to use or employ, or attempt to use or employ, in connection with any swap, or a contract of sale of any commodity in interstate commerce, or for future delivery on or subject to the rules of any registered entity, any manipulative or deceptive device or contrivance, in contravention of such rules and regulations as the Commission shall promulgate by [July 21, 2011], provided no rule or regulation promulgated by the Commission shall require any person to disclose to another person nonpublic information that may be material to the market price, rate, or level of the commodity transaction, except as necessary to make any statement made to the other person in or in connection with the transaction not misleading in any material respect.” 61 What aspects of prediction markets are relevant to the application of this statute? Are prediction markets more or less likely than other derivative markets to be susceptible to “any manipulative or deceptive
61 7 U.S.C. 9(1). See also Regulation 180.1, 17 CFR 180.1.
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