Case 2:26-cv-00151 Document 1 Filed 02/23/26 PageID.13 Page 13 of 27
the fed funds futures forecast,” 6 and, for headline consumer price index forecasts, “Kalshi provides a statistically significant improvement over the Bloomberg consensus forecast.” 7 And, “Kalshi provides real-time, distributional forecasts for macroeconomic variables such as GDP, core CPI, and unemployment—markets for which options data have historically been unavailable.” 8 38. As another example, Kalshi recently announced a partnership with Tradeweb, a leading global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, which facilitates more than $2.6 trillion in notional value of instruments traded per day. 9 The partnership is designed to expand institutional access to data from Kalshi’s market and to facilitate trading by those same institutional investors on Kalshi’s platform. 10 39. And late last year, the real estate investment firm Arrived announced its plans to utilize Kalshi’s event contracts to hedge the risk of a government shutdown impacting its business. 11 40. Though Defendants have attacked prediction markets broadly, 12 some states have focused in particular on Kalshi’s sports event contracts. But these too are swaps that fall under the 9 Tradeweb and Kalshi Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Institutional Access to Prediction Markets, Tradeweb (Feb. 19, 2026), https://www.tradeweb.com/newsroom/media-center/news- releases/tradeweb-and-kalshi-announce-strategic-partnership-to-expand-institutional-access-to-prediction- markets/. 10 See Katherine Doherty and Sridhar Natarajan, Wall Street Bond-Trading Hub Tradework Strikes Deal with Kalshi , Bloomberg (Feb. 19, 2026), https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/bond- trading-hub-tradeweb-strikes-prediction-markets-deal-with-kalshi. 11 See Ryan Frazier, L ɪɴᴋᴇᴅ I ɴ , https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7386091007588749312-rhxN/ [https://perma.cc/CQN6-JK3M]; see also Michael J. de la Merced, Kalshi, a Prediction Market, Raises $1 Billion in a New Round , N.Y. T ɪᴍᴇ s (Dec. 2, 2025),https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/business/dealbook/kalshi-prediction-market-billion.html [https://perma.cc/VUY8-HCDT] 12 Brown, supra note 2; Minty Buckwalter, Gov. Spencer Cox vows fight to keep prediction markets out of Utah , Desert News (Feb. 17, 2026), https://www.deseret.com/utah/2026/02/17/governor-cox-vows-legal- battle-over-prediction-markets/. 6 Id. at 3. 7 Id. 8 Id.
13
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs