III. DISCUSSION A.
Likelihood of Success on the Merits To establish a likelihood of success on the merits, the movant “must show that ‘there is “a reasonable chance, or probability, of winning,”’” which does not require a “more-likely-than-not showing of success on the merits.” Mallet and Co. Inc. , 16 F.4th at 380 (quoting In re Revel AC , 802 F.3d 558, 568 (3d Cir. 2015) and Reilly v. City of Harrisburg , 858 F.3d 173, 179 n. 3 (3d Cir. 2017)). The parties’ arguments related to Kalshi’s likelihood of success on the merits turn on whether the CEA and CFTC’s jurisdiction over designated contract markets preempt the New Jersey Constitution and Sports Wagering Act to the extent that the Division threatens enforcement. 1. Preemption and Party Arguments Under the Supremacy Clause, the constitution and laws of the United States “shall be the supreme Law of the Land.” U.S. Const. art. VI, cl. 2. The three general classes of preemption are express preemption, field preemption, and conflict preemption. Pennsylvania v. Navient Corp. , 967 F.3d 273, 287 (3d Cir. 2020). Express preemption, as the name implies, takes place when Congress expressly preempts state law within the statute’s language. Id. Field preemption applies “when Congress does not expressly preempt state law but where ‘“federal law leaves no room for state regulation and that Congress had a clear and manifest intent to supersede state law” in that field.’” Id. (quoting Sikkelee v. Precision Airmotive Corp. , 822 F.3d 680, 688 (3d Cir. 2016)). Lastly, conflict preemption occurs “when a state law conflicts with federal law such that compliance with both state and federal regulations is impossible, or when a challenged state law stands as an obstacle to the accomplishment and execution of the full purposes and objectives of a federal law.’” Id. (quoting Cipollone v. Liggett Grp., Inc. , 505 U.S. 504, 516 (1992)).
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