Spring 2018 PEG

LATITUDE World Watch DID NOT SEE THAT ONE COMING: EVERY DISASTER IS UNPRECEDENTED

Prepare all you want: the disaster you get won’t be the one you planned for. That’s because no disaster is ever the same as the ones before it. This is the key challenge every community faces while doing the hard work of developing disaster response and recovery plans. Hussam Mahmoud, PhD, a civil engineer at Colorado State University, is proposing and developing a new approach. It’s a mathematical model that allows planners to see how disruption in one location affects an entire community. Typically, the university reports,

communities focus on the lifelines that matter most to them, like water, power, or transportation networks. But actual disasters are less selective. If one lifeline is affected, others usually are, too. Dr. Mahmoud’s model, based on a fictional city, focuses on all lifelines. This involves considering not only the robustness of infrastructure but also social vulnerabilities and the availability of disaster funding. One important insight already gained is that fast recovery is not always the best, because of the instability it can cause.

NOT YOUR USUAL DOCKING SPOT -file photo courtesy David Richeson A boat sits at dock on a southern Alberta street, in the aftermath of the floods of 2013. No matter what the type of disaster, the right algorithm may be able to improve responses, research in Colorado suggests.

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