The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime - Marsh - 01.25

This report aims to provide readers with an indicative snapshot of kidnap, threat and extortive incidents captured by Control Risks’ Special Risks Analysis team to inform wider trends across Latin America. The following cases are open-source incidents taken from Control Risks’ records. These cases were selected based on their reliable sources and illustrative nature but do not represent the full extent of the problem.

The Global Advisor

Kidnap & extortive crime January 2025

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025

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The essential report written by Control Risks , for the exclusive readership of Hiscox brokers and policy holders.

Casework

Global kidnapping trends

Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Middle East and North Africa

About Us

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 Control Risks’ Casework October to December 2024

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Kidnap & ransom In the event of an acute crisis – be it kidnap for ransom, extortion, threat, illegal detention or a missing person – effective professional advice is critical. Control Risks is the leading global crisis response consultancy, assigned exclusively to Hiscox assureds. We consistently assist clients with more incidents each year than any other consultancy, giving Control Risks’ consultants an unparalleled level of relevant and recent expertise. Our Response team is immediately available to deploy anywhere in the world. We also have 39 offices worldwide and can provide immediate on-the-ground support to clients in the event of an incident. Control Risks maintains the only team of analysts in the industry that is dedicated to tracking kidnapping-for-ransom and other extortive crime trends globally. The team provides critical operational analysis to support consultants deployed to advise on the resolution of the kidnaps, detentions, threats and extortions affecting Hiscox policy holders. Using the world’s largest commercial database of kidnaps and extortion – currently containing details of more than 86,000incidents – and their understanding of local security dynamics, the analysts can provide tactical information for a given location, such as the average length of cases and typical concessions, as well as the identities of groups operating there and their motivations. The analysts carry out research and support incidents in multiple languages, including English, French, Spanish, German, Italian and Portuguese.

The team also supports Hiscox policy holders with preventive kidnap and extortion analysis on the Global Risk Data online platform (brought to assureds by Hiscox as a benefit of the policy), and through bespoke consulting analysis tailored to assureds’ individual exposures.

Location of Control Risks’ cases

Number of cases per country

20 United States 12 Mexico 5 Ecuador 2 Haiti

Breakdown of cases

47% Threat

24% Kidnap

24% Threat Extortion

3% Detention

Afghanistan, Brazil, Cameroon, Ethiopia, France, Malaysia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, Sudan, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, UAE, Ukraine

2% Missing Person

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 Global kidnapping trends October to December 2024

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Key trends: open source Incidents by region and local vs foreign nationals

Perpetrator types

100%

Europe & CIS

0 %

1 %

MENA

80%

12 %

7 %

11 %

26 %

16 %

2 %

60%

10 %

Americas

52 %

Asia Pacific

40%

Local nationals

Sub-Saharan Africa

Foreign nationals

20%

71 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 88 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days

94 % of global victims were local nationals 23 sectors affected

Americas

Asia and Pacific Europe and CIS

MENA

Sub-Saharan Africa

Islamist extremist

Ethnic/Nationalist

Left-wing

Criminal

Local Community Group

Other

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 Africa

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Nigeria saw a 16% increase in reported kidnaps in the last quarter of 2024 relative to the same period in 2023 as criminal and Islamist extremist groups continued to engage in the crime. Northern states remained the hotspot, though incidents occurred frequently throughout the country. Kidnappers over this last quarter demonstrated a continued intent and capability to target commercial personnel, including foreign nationals, across a wide range of sectors, such as mining, oil and gas, manufacturing and agriculture. Sophisticated gangs will continue to demonstrate a willingness to confront security forces in operations they view as high risk, yet high reward, including abductions of foreign nationals. The detention threat to mining employees in Mali increased over the last quarter of 2024, as the junta has increased its reliance on arbitrary detentions of mining employees. Such detentions formed part of the junta’s strategy to enforce compliance with the 2023 Mining Code and demand tax arrears. The implementation of the Code will remain selective and opaque, and further arbitrary detentions of foreign and local employees of mining companies are likely in the coming months. Meanwhile, Islamist extremist groups such as Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), alongside criminal actors, have continued to exploit the permissive security environment, to generate revenue and assert territorial control through kidnapping. Pirates in East and West African waters remained active as seasonal weather conditions favoured their maritime kidnap operations. Off the coast of Somalia , the end of the monsoon season in November, corresponding to more favourable sea conditions in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, coincided with an increase in pirate activity.

Somalian pirates hijacked a Chinese-owned fishing vessel and abducted 18 of its crew members in early December. In the Gulf of Guinea, the Harmattan season (October-March), characterised by reduced visibility at sea due to Saharan dust, also allowed pirates to operate more freely, with Control Risks recording multiple abduction attempts and a successful maritime kidnap over the past quarter. The number of reported kidnaps in Cameroon also increased by more than tenfold in the last quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Incidents occurred frequently in Cameroon’s historical hotspots, such as the Far North region, where Islamist extremist groups operate, and the anglophone regions (South-West and North- West regions), where anglophone separatist groups continue to depend on the crime to fund their insurgency. The crime has also become entrenched in areas not historically affected by kidnapping, namely the North and Adamawa regions, where financially motivated criminals have escalated their operations.

72 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 85 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 21 sectors affected

Key developments October to December 2024

Reported kidnaps across Sub- Saharan Africa rose by 19% in the last quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, driven largely by increases in Nigeria and Cameroon. Nigeria continued to record the vast majority of kidnaps in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, with kidnap gangs demonstrating a continued intent and capability to target commercial personnel across a wide range of sectors. The detention threat to mining employees in Mali increased over the last quarter of 2024. Criminal and Islamist extremist

groups in Mali continued to pose a kidnap threat to a wider range of commercial personnel.

Permissive seasonal weather conditions in the waters of East and West Africa allowed pirate groups to operate with relative impunity over the last quarter of 2024. Cameroon continued to see frequent reported kidnaps across all of its multiple hotspots, driven by the activity of a wide range of threat actors.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 Americas

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The number of kidnaps in Mexico continued to increase between October and December 2024, with the state of Sinaloa registering an extremely significant increase compared to the same period in 2023. Mexico as a whole saw a 25% increase compared with the same quarter in 2023. This trend stems from a deterioration in the overall security environment related to an ongoing dispute between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel. Other states where cases increased compared with the same period in 2023 include Jalisco, Michoacan, Coahuila and Nuevo Leon. In turn, the number of virtual kidnaps across Mexico saw a 143% increase over the last quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Control Risks identified that a wide range of criminal groups – including local gangs and organised criminal groups – are more commonly relying on virtual kidnaps to target business travellers, wealthy individuals and their financial dependants. Ecuador registered a 43% rise in the number of reported incidents between October and December 2024, compared with the same quarter in 2023. Guayas province remained the national hotspot, accounting for roughly 37% of all cases. Organised criminal groups in Guayas province proved resilient enough to sustain their influence in areas under their control and expand their ranks despite the increased presence of security forces across the province. They leveraged recruits from low-income groups to target the owners and employees of medium-sized and large businesses; as well as opportunistic abductions of individuals travelling across the city. Colombia registered a slight decline in kidnaps between October and December 2024, compared with the same quarter in 2023. Nonetheless, this is most likely due to variations in the quality

of the reporting environment in rural areas than any sustained reduction in the threat. The country witnessed a sharp increase in the number of urban gangs engaged in financially motivated abductions in cities such as Bogota, Medellin and Barranquilla, as well as the continued prevalence of kidnaps perpetrated by left-wing guerrillas in rural areas. Multiple Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident fronts increased their presence across the southern and south-eastern departments of Cauca, Huila, Caquetá and Valle del Cauca, while the National Liberation Army (ELN) increased its activity across the Norte de Santander and Cesar departments. Additionally, Peru witnessed a 45% increase in the number of kidnap cases in the last quarter of 2024, compared with the same period in 2023. Control Risks identified a steady increase in urban gangs targeting the owners of small and medium- sized businesses. Overall, these criminals hold victims captive for approximately a week during which they are likely to inflict severe violence

on them to prompt ransom payments. Lima department is the national hotspot and accounted for roughly half of all incidents between October and December 2024, followed by La Libertad. 66 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 90 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 19 sectors affected

Key developments October to December 2024

Reported kidnaps in the Americas over the past quarter remained broadly stable compared to the same period in 2023. The persistent conflict between the factions of the Sinaloa Cartel drove an increase in the number of reported kidnaps-for-ransom in Mexico and particularly Sinaloa state over Q4 2024, while the number of virtual kidnaps also increased. Recorded incidents in Ecuador increased over the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, especially in Guayas province. Kidnaps will continue to pose a threat in Colombia amid the growing activity of criminal gangs across major cities, and of left-wing guerrillas in rural areas. Urban gangs will remain a major threat actor over the coming year in Peru , accounting for a surge of reported kidnaps over the last quarter, across major cities in the Lima and La Libertad departments.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 Asia-Pacific

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Kidnap rates in India continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, sustaining the downward trend recorded in other quarters in 2024. Maharashtra state, which accounted for the largest number of recorded incidents in the final quarter of 2023, saw a significant decline in recorded cases, with Uttar Pradesh overtaking it as the state with the highest number of kidnaps in the fourth quarter of 2024. Reported incidents continued to occur regularly throughout the country, with less sophisticated criminal groups routinely targeting local business owners and their child dependants. Perpetrators continued to primarily target victims previously known to them, though cases of opportunistic and targeted kidnaps continued to occur less frequently. Numbers of kidnaps in Pakistan remained broadly consistent with rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. While the majority of incidents occurred in Sindh and Punjab provinces, in line with the previous quarters of 2024, there was a 200% increase in kidnap incidents reported in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces in comparison with the same period in 2023. Separatist and extremist groups in these provinces escalated kidnap operations against both security forces and local employees operating at outdoor worksites in the extractive sectors, including mining. This increase in kidnap rates came amid heightened disruptive and anti-governmental activity by these groups in the final quarter of 2024. Recorded kidnaps in Afghanistan increased between October and December 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. The majority of kidnap cases occurred in rural Kandahar province, bordering Pakistan, where criminal gangs targeted child dependants of local nationals

for financial gain. Control Risks also recorded rare cases in Herat province, bordering Iran. Criminal groups continued to capitalise on the porous borders and rural landscapes of this region, which allowed them to operate with limited interception by security forces. Detention remained the most prevalent threat to foreign nationals from the US and other Western European countries. The Taliban continued to sporadically target foreign travellers perceived to threaten or criticise their authority and as a means of engaging in hostage diplomacy to secure diplomatic leverage and extract political and economic concessions from victims’ home governments. Following a significant escalation in political turmoil and domestic insecurity in Bangladesh throughout 2024, numbers of kidnaps increased by 75% in the final quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Criminal gangs in Dhaka, Khulna and Rajshahi provinces targeted local business owners and employees for financial gain. Control Risks also recorded sporadic incidents of riverine kidnaps in Chittagong province perpetrated by Myanmar-based separatist groups, targeting primarily local fishers and agricultural workers.

77 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 91 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 14 sectors affected

Key developments October to December 2024

Kidnap numbers in Asia Pacific (APAC) region fell by 27% over the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. Reported cases in India continued to decline, in line with a wider downward trend established throughout 2024. As in the third quarter of 2024, Pakistan recorded the highest number of cases in Asia Pacific in the fourth quarter of 2024, remaining the region’s kidnap hotspot. Incidents of kidnap and political detention in Afghanistan increased in comparison with the third quarter of 2023, targeting both local and foreign nationals. Kidnap rates in Bangladesh increased by 75% compared with the same period in 2023, following significant domestic insecurity over the third and fourth quarters of 2024.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 Middle East and North Africa

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region saw numbers of reported kidnaps over the fourth quarter of 2024 slightly decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Due to the escalation of regional conflict and instability, local and regional media reporting on kidnaps declined in favour of coverage of emerging security crises and political developments. Syria remained the region’s kidnap hotspot, accounting for approximately 49% of the regional total of reported kidnaps. In line with previous quarters of 2024, Aleppo governorate reported the highest number of kidnap incidents, with As Suwayda and Daraa governorates also recording high levels of kidnap activity. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime will result in marked shifts in the kidnap environment, but continued security vacuums will sustain kidnapper activity over the coming year. Criminal gangs and militias continued to target victims for financial gain in Daraa, As Suwayda, Homs and Damascus provinces, and increasingly targeted victims based on ideological factors such as perceived affiliation with the Assad regime. The kidnap threat will remain elevated into 2025, though shifts in perpetrator and kidnap dynamics in light of the political transition are projected to persist. Kidnap numbers in Iran in the final quarter of 2024 remained consistent with levels reported in the same period in 2023. Tehran persisted as a hotspot for kidnap activity, with local and foreign criminal gangs regularly targeting victims for financial gain. Control Risks recorded a 50% decrease in kidnap incidents in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, following heightened state security measures enforced to mitigate kidnap activity. The Iranian government continued to target foreign nationals in politically motivated detentions as a means

of political retaliation and as a form of coercive, hostage diplomacy against Western governments. In Iraq , a range of criminal gangs operating in Baghdad continued to target commercial personnel and their child dependants in financially motivated kidnap operations. Rare incidents targeting foreign nationals were reported, mainly expatriates who had established predictable routines that are easily exploited by criminals. There was a relative increase in reported kidnaps across Lebanon this quarter compared to the same period in 2023, primarily in Akkbar, Baalkbek-Hermel and North Lebanon governorates. Following heightened internal instability and strained state security capabilities amid Israel’s conflict with Shia movement Hizbullah, less sophisticated criminal gangs capitalised on the situation to employ kidnap operations while the security forces were preoccupied with the conflict.

84 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 80 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 11 sectors affected

Key developments October to December 2024

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region saw numbers of reported kidnaps over the third quarter of 2024 decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Syria maintained high recorded numbers of kidnaps, though political developments triggered shifts in kidnap and perpetrator dynamics. Political detention remained the most prevalent threat to foreign commercial personnel and multinationals in Iran , with kidnaps-for-ransom mainly affecting local nationals. In Iraq , criminal gangs in Baghdad continued to sporadically target both local and foreign victims in financially motivated kidnaps. Kidnap rates in Lebanon increased, with criminals capitalising on weakened state security oversight amid regional conflict and instability.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2025 About Us

Celebrating 30 years in partnership

The Hiscox Crisis Management division serves both corporate and private clients. Our exclusive partnership with Control Risks allows us to combine renowned insurance expertise with unparalleled security risk and crisis management capability to protect what matters most to our clients. We are the global leaders in this sector. Celebrating 30 years in partnership, Hiscox and Control Risks have helped policyholders manage thousands of crisis events, including complex security and integrity issues. Together, we combine our insurance expertise with Control Risks’ capabilities across security risk and crisis management, protecting what matters most to our clients.

Control Risks is a global specialist risk consultancy. We are committed to helping our clients build organisations that are secure, compliant and resilient in an age of ever-changing risk. We believe that responsible risk-taking is at the core of our clients’ success. We have unparalleled experience in helping clients ready themselves for, respond to and recover from challenges and crises that arise in any ambitious organisation seeking to convert risk into opportunity globally. Kidnap & ransom Hiscox has established itself as the world’s leading provider of crisis insurance for the last 25 years, offering financial protection and world-class response services to corporations and private individuals all around the world. Our insurance offering keeps people and businesses safe against the threat of kidnap, extortive threats, malicious detention, hijack and other complex crises. We insure all forms of corporates, from the largest multinationals to the smallest companies, as well as families and some of the wealthiest people in the world whose wealth or fame may attract unwanted attention. Hiscox is the world’s largest provider of crisis insurance, currently underwriting more than half of the industry’s kidnap and ransom insurance premium.

In business since 1901, Hiscox is one of the most trusted and influential Lloyd’s of London syndicates. Whether it’s protecting family homes from a storm surge or hail damage, helping to safeguard blue-chip companies from the crippling financial and reputational costs of a cyber-attack, or working to keep employees safe and businesses operational following a terrorist incident, we continue to innovate to respond to some of the most complex, volatile and emerging risks.

Key coverages include:

Multinational companies of all sizes operating in high risk regions of the world Charities and NGOs Security companies Shipping companies Key executives working in commercially sensitive positions Private families

Copyright © Control Risks. All rights reserved. This report is for distribution by Hiscox only and must not be reproduced or disclosed to any other party (“Third Party”) without the express prior written consent of Control Risks or Hiscox. Any reproduction or disclosure without authorisation shall be considered an infringement of Control Risks’ intellectual property rights (including copyright). If authorised, disclosure by an authorised party (“Authorised Party”) must be subject to the following conditions: (i) the Authorised Party will not change the wording or alter the meaning given in any part of this report; (ii) all extracts from this report will be individually attributed to Control Risks with the reference “Source: Control Risks” at the end of such extract; and (iii) save as otherwise agreed in writing by Control Risks, the Authorised Party will not broadcast, publish, resell or otherwise disclose this report to any Third Party without the prior written consent of Control Risks. This report is based on information available at the time of writing. No express or implied warranty is given in respect of any judgment made or to changes or any unforeseen escalation of any factors affecting any such judgment. The issues covered by this report and the emphasis placed on them may not necessarily address all the issues of concern in relation to its subject matter. Analysis provided in this report does not in any way constitute recommendations or advice, nor constitute a warranty of future results by any company in the Control Risks group of companies (“Control Risks”) nor an assurance against risk. Control Risks disclaims all liability arising from the disclosure and use of this report.

For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: Kidnap and Ransom Team marc.l.hewitt@marsh.com alice.dickson@marsh.com hiscox.com Special Risks Analysis Team specialrisksanalysis@controlrisks.com controlrisks.com

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