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Coincident The sum of two or more loads that occur in the same hour, which total to the assessment area peak load. Non-Coincident The sum of two or more peak loads on individual systems that do not occur in the same time interval. Load Forecasting Assumptions by Subregion Subregion Peak Season Coincident/Non- Coincident MISO-Central Summer Coincident MISO-South Summer Coincident PJM Summer Coincident SERC East Winter Non-Coincident SERC Central Winter Non-Coincident SERC Southeast Summer Non-Coincident SERC FL-Peninsula Summer Non-Coincident
Load Forecast The Peak Demand Forecast is reported by entities registered as Planning Authority (PA). The reporting entities use these definitions in preparing their data: Total Internal Demand The peak hourly load for the summer 3 and winter 4 of each year. Projected Total Internal Demand is based on normal weather (50/50 distribution 5 ) and includes the impacts of distributed resources, energy efficiency, and conservation programs. Net Internal Demand Total Internal Demand, reduced by the amount of Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response projected to be available during the peak hour. Net Internal Demand is used in all Reserve Margin calculations. Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response The projected amount of unique MW counted toward resource adequacy planning by an entity for activities or programs that are directly controlled or dispatched by a System Operator. These programs are designed to modify the amount of electricity used during the peak hour and may include any demand response called as part of an emergency operating procedure. Total Installed Non-utility Photovoltaic Non-utility scaled photovoltaic generation. This includes single-phase installed units that are considered “behind-the-meter,” “rooftop solar,” or part of a “building-integrated system.”
3 The summer season represents June–September. 4 The winter season represents December–February.
5 There is a 50 percent probability that actual demand will be higher and a 50 percent probability that actual demand will be lower than the value provided for a given season/year.
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