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Subregion Reserve Margins Reference Margin Levels are established to allow NERC to assess the level of planning reserves, recognizing factors of uncertainty involved in long- term planning (e.g., forced generator outages, extreme weather impacts on demand, fuel availability, and intermittency of variable generation). SERC utilized the NERC Reference Margin Level of 15 percent. All margins are above the Reference Level over the next 10 years. In addition to Planning Reserve Margin analysis, the 2020 Probabilistic Assessment determines four resource adequacy metrics, which are loss-of- load hours (LOLH), loss-of-load expectation (LOLE), loss-of-load frequency (LOLF), and expected unserved energy (MWh and MPM). At the Anticipated Reserve Margins below, all areas have minimal risk to resource adequacy. In addition to the base case analysis, the RAWG conducts several sensitivity/scenario cases to assess the resource adequacy impact of reducing the Anticipated Reserve Margins and Increased Maintenance Rates. The published SERC 2020 Probabilistic Assessment is available on SERC’s website. For more information regarding this analysis, please read the RAWG subsection under Working Group Contributions of this document. Table 1: Calculated Reserve Margins by Subregion SERC Subregion Margin 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 All Reference Margin Level 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% SERC Central Anticipated Reserve Margin 21.8% 22.2% 22.8% 22.9% 19.4% 17.3% 17.6% 17.2% 16.4% 15.8% SERC East Anticipated Reserve Margin 19.5% 21.2% 21.6% 21.1% 20.4% 23.4% 23.5% 25.1% 25.3% 27.9% SERC MISO- Central 1 Anticipated Reserve Margin 9.5% 12.2% 10.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 9.8% MISO-South Anticipated Reserve Margin 28.3% 31.3% 29.1% 26.8% 25.8% 23.3% 18.8% 18.3% 17.8% 12.5% SERC-PJM 2 Anticipated Reserve Margin 51.5% 48.7% 45.5% 44.6% 42.1% 40.6% 39.4% 38.2% 36.8% 35.6% SERC Southeast Anticipated Reserve Margin 34.7% 34.5% 37.9% 39.5% 41.4% 40.9% 42.7% 41.8% 45.8% 44.6% SERC Florida Peninsula Anticipated Reserve Margin 22.0% 22.3% 20.9% 23.6% 22.0% 22.1% 24.6% 21.6% 20.1% 20.1%
1 MISO-Central and MISO-South is one Balancing Authority and has access to reserves in both subregions up to the Regional Directional Transfer Limit. 2 Reserve Margins in SERC PJM are calculated for the entire PJM footprint since power flows around PJM without regard to Regional boundaries. No specific reserve margin requirement exists in the regional portions of PJM.
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