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2020 RRS Annual Assessment

This 2020 Reliability Review Subcommittee Annual Assessment (2020 Annual Report) was developed by the SERC Reliability Review Subcommittee (RRS). This assessment was developed based on data and narrative information collected by SERC from its Registered Entities to independently assess the long-term reliability of the SERC BPS while identifying trends, emerging issues, and potential risks during the ten-year assessment period. The Reliability Review Subcommittee (RRS), at the direction of SERC’s Engineering Committee, supported the development of this assessment through a review process that leveraged the knowledge and experience of system planners, RRS members, SERC staff, and other subject matter experts. This review process ensures the accuracy and completeness of all data and information. The SERC Engineering Committee reviewed and approved this assessment.

Preface		3
About This Assessment		4
Executive Summary		5
Key Findings		5
Expected demand projections for the SERC Region are almost flat.		5
Five of the seven SERC subregions expect the Anticipated Reserve Margins to be above twenty percent for the ten-year period.		5
Only slight changes in the Regional resource mix are projected for the 10-year planning horizon, with no significant change reported from 2019 to 2020. The only exception is higher long term forecasted growth in variable energy resources		5
SERC is proactively addressing the impacts of increased renewable resources within the SERC footprint and identifying its risks through various forums.		5
Across the SERC Region, member companies continue to build transmission, especially in the first five years of the assessment period, to ensure a reliable interconnected power system.		6
Subregion Reserve Margins		7
Capacity Resource Trends		8
Capacity Resource Topics		9
Demand Projections		10
Figure 4: SERC Region Total Internal Demand (MW)		10
Transmission Additions		11
SERC Central		14
Highlights		14
State of Reliability of SERC Central		15
SERC East		16
Highlights		16
State of Reliability of SERC East		17
SERC FL-Peninsula		18
Highlights		18
State of Reliability of SERC Florida Peninsula		19
SERC MISO-Central		20
Highlights		20
State of Reliability of SERC MISO-Central		21
Reported demand-side management response in the SERC MISO-Central subregion exceeds 1,000 MW, or 5.4 percent of the Total Internal Demand for 2020. This level of demand response is expected to continue through the forecast period.		21
SERC MISO-South		23
Highlights		23
State of Reliability of SERC MISO-South		24
SERC PJM		25
Highlights		25
State of Reliability of SERC PJM		26
As with many of the SERC subregions, Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) are accounted for in the load forecast. For the purposes of the long-term load forecast, PJM defines distributed solar generation as any solar resource that is not interconnected...		26
SERC Southeast		27
Highlights		27
State of Reliability of SERC Southeast		28
Working Group Contributions		30
Variable Energy Resources		30
Scope of Activities		30
Work accomplishments		30
VERWG Assessment		30
The SERC Region is moving in a direction that allows all SERC entities to have increased certainty and understanding on the effects of VERs on the Bulk Electric System as usage increases. SERC and its members are focused on identifying risk caused by ...		30
Reliability Risk		31
Near/Long-Term Transmission Summary		32
Seasonal Outlook		33
Load Forecast		35
Resource Categories		36
Reserve Margin		37
Appendix A SERC Membership		39

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