Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. is trying to contain, or even trigger, regime change in these four countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) through economic sanctions and other means.
FOUR POWERS For starters, the United States is locked in an escalating strategic rivalry with at least four implicitly aligned revisionist powers: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These countries all have an interest in challenging the U.S.-led global order, and 2020 could be a critical year for them, owing to the U.S. presidential election and the potential change in U.S. global policies that could follow. Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. is trying to contain, or even trigger, regime change in these four countries through economic sanctions and other means. Similarly, the four revisionists want to undercut American hard and soft power abroad by destabilizing the U.S. from within through asymmetric warfare. If the U.S. election descends into partisan rancor, chaos, disputed vote tallies, and accusations of “rigged” elections, so much the better for America’s rivals. A breakdown of the U.S. political system would weaken American power abroad. Moreover, some countries have a particular interest in removing Trump.
The acute threat that he poses to the Iranian regime gives it every reason to escalate the conflict with the U.S. in the coming months — even if it means risking a full-scale war — on the chance that the ensuing spike in oil prices would crash the U.S. stock market, trigger a recession, and sink Trump’s re- election prospects. Yes, the consensus view is that the targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani has deterred Iran, but that argument misunderstands the regime’s perverse incentives. War between the U.S. and Iran is likely this year; the current calm is the one before the proverbial storm. COLDWARWITH CHINA As for U.S.-China relations, the recent “phase one” deal is a temporary Band-Aid. The bilateral cold war over technology, data, investment, currency, and finance is already escalating sharply. The COVID-19 outbreak has reinforced the position of those in the U.S. arguing for containment and lent further momentum to the broader trend of Sino-American “decoupling.”
18
March 2020
Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker